What to do About Jon Jay ?

Now that the Lance Lynn contact has been taken care of, and both Tony Cruz and Peter Bourjos have avoided arbitration, we can turn our attention to the last piece of the Cardinals 2015 puzzle, Jon Jay.

The Good

Jonjay2014aThere may not be a more polarizing figure on the current Cardinals roster than Jon Jay.  There is no question that he is a likeable player and has developed a strong fan base just on his personality alone.  In addition, fans that favor offensive production first will tend to side with Jay and point to his consistency in batting average (career .295 without much deviation) and on-base percentage (.379 last year, .359 for his career).  They will also be quick to point out his lack of errors, some to the point of suggesting he is worthy of a Gold Glove.  Perhaps that is going a bit overboard, but Jon Jay does have a good glove and catches any ball that he can get to.


The Bad

The other side quickly dismisses those claims by using his slugging percentage to show (rightfully) that he is a singles only hitter as well as a lack of stolen bases (6, down from 10 and 19 the previous two seasons), proclaiming him a base clogger, thus not a good choice for the top of the batting order.   The persecution of Jay continues with a deeper look into his defensive performance, specifically below league average range and less than impressive defensive runs saved.  It is hard to argue with this after watching Billy Hamilton score from third on a short fly ball.  That video should come with a parental warning.

The fact is that all of this is true and just demonstrates the wide diversity of how fans look at and evaluate a player in the game today.  Perhaps it would be different with a more critical approach to broadcasting on television and radio, but that is not the product being offered at the moment.

The Ugly

How does this affect Jon Jay ?   Simple – of all the players on the roster today, Jon Jay should be the last to face an actual arbitration hearing.   All of the positives from his 2014 season (taking the every day center fielding job away from Peter Bourjos, an improved offensive year, better base running) will be shattered by a cold hard examination of his defensive performance, which will be the basis of the Cardinals case to the arbitration committee.

The two sides have not disclosed any numbers publicly, but we do have some information start forming a basis for a possible resolution.   Jay avoided arbitration last year by signing a one year $3.25M contract.   Based on his 2014 season, and both sides should agree with this, he surpassed the previous performance that earned him that contract.  As a result, he should expect some raise above the league inflation, and the Cardinals should be expected to do at least that.  That puts a number like $4.5M in play and will likely be near the midpoint of the two sides.

What to do ?

The proper play here is for a one year contract for $4.5M.   His fans can rejoice that they will have another season with the young man while his critics will wince at nearly $5M spent for a player that they don’t think should be an every day player and would rather see him not even on the roster.   The outcome of an arbitration hearing could make that a reality sooner rather than later.

The thing that should not happen is a multi-year deal, buying out Jay’s last two years of arbitration and any free agency years.   Unlike the Lance Lynn situation, the Cardinals have quite a bit of depth in the position, though nobody particularly stands out, including Jon Jay.  Right now, Tommy Pham can play better defense, though he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to hit major league pitching.  Peter Bourjos has a slightly better track record than Pham, though he can’t be viewed as anything more than competition to push Jay for another year.  Randal Grichuk remains a curious possibility, especially if Jason Heyward is up for a move to center (unlikely).   Stephen Piscotty squelches any thoughts about Jay as a long term play in left field.  Down in the minor leagues, Charlie Tilson continues to move up and could soon be pushing his way into consideration.   The point here is that the Cardinals do not have a clear cut answer for the center field situation, and that should keep the front office from offering an extended contract to Jay.   The upside here is that if viewed as a non-punitive course of action, that could be exactly the fire Jon Jay needs under his feet to prove his critics wrong.

A one year $4.5M contract is the answer that both sides should be able to live with.  That is what I would work to if I were the Cardinals front office or Jon Jay’s agent.   The next few days should be interesting as the deadline for submitting arbitration offers has passed.  Unless the two sides are finalizing some sort of deal, it appears as if Jon Jay will be the first Cardinals player to reach arbitration since Darren Oliver in 1999.  Oh, the Cardinals won that case – and non-tendered him at the end of the season.

What would you do about Jon Jay ?  Let me know in the comments or yell at me on Twitter

Posted in 2015 Season | Leave a comment

What to do about Lance Lynn ?

I knew it would take a special topic to get me blogging again, and this one is as good as it gets.   For the record, I have been an unapologetic Lance Lynn fan since his days with the Springfield Cardinals, way back in 2009.   He went 11-4 that year with an ERA just under 3 runs per game – in a very hitter friendly league and park.

The Cardinals Other Lance, Lance Lynn

What to do about Lance Lynn

The question of what to do about Lance Lynn brings out all sorts of responses, but they tend to fall into one of three categories.  Let’s look at each and try to figure out what the right answer is.

1. Trade him at peak value

I believe this is the stance from one of my favorite bloggers and sports buddies, Bill Ivie.  We have had many fun conversations about Kyle Lohse over the years, and this feels very much like one of those, for a number of reasons.

Let’s start with the pro side of the argument.

There is no question that Lance Lynn’s value has never been higher.  In spite of posting records of 18-7 and 15-10 in his first two seasons as a starter,  there still seems to be some lingering doubt about how much of that was Lance Lynn and how much was the Cardinals offense blowing out opponents in his starts.  Some of those critics were silenced with another 15-10 record last year where the big guy shaved more than a run off his ERA, while others will point to his relatively unchanged FIP, suggesting he was just more lucky than actually good.

Perhaps more important than his wins and losses, Lynn has now gone back to back seasons with 200 or more innings pitched.  He pitched into the seventh inning in 14 of his 33 starts last year, including two complete games (one was a shutout).  The last Cardinals pitcher to have back to back 200 inning seasons, not named Adam Wainwright, is Chris Carpenter (2010-2011).    You have to go back to 2005 to find another name, and that was Jason Marquis.  No, really.

While all of this Lynning stuff might make for fun debate on Twitter or one of the various message boards, it really doesn’t matter.  The con side won this debate on Nov 17. 2014.  That was the day Shelby Miller was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Jason Heyward.  The depth of the Cardinals rotation, once an almost embarrassing abundance, was impacted significantly by this deal.  So much so that Lance Lynn becomes nearly untouchable.  He is now one of the veterans in spite of just entering his first year of salary arbitration.  Even with the rumors of the Cardinals pursuing big name pitchers, such as Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer and David Price, those are all about adding depth to supplement the existing rotation, not to replace any of the core members (Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha).

Shelby Miller’s departure just means you can write Lance Lynn’s name in to the Cardinals 2015 rotation in ink, not pencil.

2. Let’s take it one year at a time

This should be a non-starter for a number of reasons, the foremost being that the Cardinals want to avoid salary arbitration at nearly all cost.  On one hand, it is a contentious process that the front office views as destructive to the relationship they have worked so long and hard to build with a young player.   It sends a message that the player is not a core member of the roster, but a commodity.   That is a sure way to push a player, such as Lance Lynn, into testing the free agency market at their first opportunity.

Another risk for the front office is lack of salary control in subsequent years.  The two sides could enter the process next year, differing by millions of dollars, dollars that the team would much rather spend courting new free agents early in the next signing period instead of holding in reserve should they lose in arbitration.

If that is not enough, there is even more risk on Lance Lynn’s side of this negotiation.  While he has made steady improvement in his first four seasons, he is also one pitch away from a season or career ending injury.   While fans may dismiss this rather quickly, this is Lynn’s career  and he has an opportunity right now to guarantee a lifestyle for his family that many fans can only dream about.

The end result is that both sides benefit by avoiding yearly arbitration.  So much that it leaves us with

3. Sign Lance Lynn for __________________

This is ultimately the right answer, though opinions on  “how long” and for “how much” vary significantly. Fortunately we have some examples in recent Cardinals history that should help us sort this out.

Just before the start of the 2008 season, Adam Wainwright signed a 4 year $15M deal.  It was structured as $750k signing bonus, $500K (2008), $2.6M (2009), $4.65M (2010) and $6.5M (2012).  It also included options for 2013 and 2013, valued at $9M and $12M respectively.  This was for a former first round draft pick (Braves, 2000) that had lived up to and probably surpassed many expectations.  In other words, Adam Wainwright was seen as a future top-of-the-rotation-face-of-the-franchise guy.

Midway though the 2011 season, Jaime Garcia signed a 4 year $27M deal.   Like Adam Wainwright’s, it bought out his last team controlled year as well as all of his arbitration eligible time.  It was structured as a $500k signing bonus, $3.25M (2012), $5.75M (2013), $7.75M (2014) and $9.25M (2015).  It also included two option years at $11.5M and $12M, respectively.   At the time of the signing, Jaime Garcia was 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA after a rookie season where he went 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting.  In other words, he was the left handed young stud to pitch alongside Adam Wainwright for the foreseeable future.

For the risks the Cardinals took in both of these deals, they were rewarded with what turned out to be discounts later in the later (free agent) years as salaries escalated pretty quickly, thanks to some gargantuan deals elsewhere.   The players got some security, which turned out to be bigger benefits than the team discount as both missed significant playing time.

Given where Lance Lynn is today, these two deals should serve as something of a floor for a forward looking deal, for two reasons.  First, and most significant, all of the years in a potential long term contract will be at arbitration rates, not the league minimums where Garcia and Wainwright started.  The other factor is overall rise of salaries in the major leagues, which makes Adam Wainwright’s 2008 deal look like a huge bargain.

The ceiling for such a deal could be Kyle Lohse’s contract from the end of the 2008 season.   In his case, he was already a free agent thus his contract extension reflected that escalated yearly salary.   He signed a 4 year $41M extension which was split out as a $1.25M signing bonus and $7.125M (2009), $8.875M (2010), $11.875M (2011) and $11.875M (2012).

Lohse is a particularly interesting case as he went to arbitration in his first two eligible seasons with Minnesota, winning both times.  He was traded to Cincinnati in the last of those as the two were unlikely to work out any long term deal.  That is not how the Cardinals would want to proceed with Lance Lynn, especially now with Shelby Miller in Atlanta and Michael Wacha not anywhere close to 150 innings, let alone the 200 mark that Lynn has turned in the last two years.

Any deal that the Cardinals make with Lance Lynn, other than a year at a time, will buy out all three years of arbitration.   In order to get something of a discount to compensate for their risks, it should also include his first year of free agency, some of which can be front loaded as an incentive.   Going beyond that, remembering that Adam Wainwright just signed a 5 year extension, would be in the way of options, protecting both parties.   Using the Lohse and Garcia deals as bookends, you get something that might look like $1M signing bonus, $5M (2015), $7M (2016), $9M (2017) and $14M (2018). Adjusted for salary differences, this is not all that far off Adam Wainwright’s deal back in 2008.  This would provide an incentive up front while not blowing out any arbitration comparisons for the next round of pitchers that will go through the process.

What will they actually do ?  Time will tell, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Lance Lynn and the Cardinals announce a 4 year contract in the vicinity of $36M in the next few days.

What would you do ?  Please share your ideas in the comments.

Thanks for reading.  Go Cardinals.

ps: All contract information is courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Posted in 2015 Season | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

NLDS Game One – It is the Little Things

It always has been and it will always continue to be the little things that win baseball games.  In a matchup of two of the best pitchers in the National League, you expect the little thing to be a hanging curveball hit into the bleachers (Randal Grichuk) or someone laying out to make a spectacular play (Adrian Gonzalez, sort of), In a 10-9 slugfest you have to look hard to find the key little thing amongst many little things, but it is there for those willing to look.

Don_Mattingly_DodgersIn a season where Cardinals fans, me included, have criticized Mike Matheny for being three batters too late to make a pitching change, it was refreshing to see the same thing happen to Don Mattingly on the other side of the diamond.  But that is the little thing that might have a large impact to this divisional series.   It was certainly the turning point in Game One.

A few days before the series started, our friend, Dan Buffa, wrote a blog and started up a twitter conversation, urging Cardinals fans to stay engaged and optimistic in the divisional series.  Dan suggested that the two teams were a lot closer than some analysts have have you believe, and I completely agree.  Local sports writer, Bernie Miklasz responded with

... and what happened last year is irrelevant.

which is the right thing to say if you are being all cool and analytical about the game, forgetting that it is played by young men that have emotions.  And memories.

There was one rather Nostradamus like reply to Bernie that I am particularly fond of

tell me that if Matt Carpenter has another 10 pitch
at bat in a close game.

OK, so it might have been only 8 pitches, but I think the point was made.   The feeling of deja vu was eerily comforting when Matt Carpenter stepped up to the plate in the seventh inning, but let’s go back and set it up to see where Don Mattingly’s mistake happened.

With two outs in the sixth inning, and the Cardinals trailing 6-1, Matt Carpenter connects with a Clayton Kershaw fastball and deposits it in the seats to make it a 6-2 game.   That was the only the second Cardinals hit of the game.  There were no signs being stolen, Kershaw was not tipping pitches.  Carpenter knew first ball fastball and took an appropriate swing.  The problem was that Kershaw left it in the fat part of the strike zone, and Carpenter did not miss.   File this away for a few moments.

In the seventh inning, the shadows were no longer a factor.  It was the third time through the batting order for the Cardinals and it was a hot night in Los Angeles.  Sorry Harold Reynolds, there were no tipping pitches and nobody was stealing signs.   The answer was much less dramatic, Kershaw lost  his control and it compounded when he was forced to pitch from the stretch.

Look at the Matt Holliday at bat to see the inning unfold.  Kershaw missed on his first two pitches, and they were not close.  Holliday swings and misses a 2-0 meatball, but takes the next pitch to run the count to 3-1.   That, Harold, is how this inning happened.   Holliday sat on a 3-1 get me over fastball and ripped it for a single.   Unlike the 2-0 pitch, Holliday hit it squarely.

The same situation happened with Jhonny Peralta, though much quicker.  Peralta smoked a single on a 1-0 fastball, over the heart of the plate.   Yadier Molina smacked the first pitch he saw, also a fastball, also over the plate.   None of these pitches were tipped, they were just left over the fat part of the plate, like the home run last inning by Matt Carpenter.   This was not vintage Clayton Kershaw, this is a pitcher that was running out of gas.

Matt Adams singled on a 1-2 pitch that again caught too much of the plate.   There is no magic here.   Control is the issue, just as it was when Adam Wainwright was struggling earlier.

Kershaw made Pete Kozma look silly at the plate and just painted a called third strike on the outside corner for the first out.  With all due respect to Kershaw, my daughter could probably strike out Pete Kozma, and I say that as a big Kozma fan.   What Don Mattingly missed here is that this was no turning point for Kershaw, he was not righting the ship.  He just struck out a .200 hitter.

After the Kozma strikeout, Jon Jay singles home Jhonny Peralta to cut the lead to 6-4.  It was a good piece of hitting by Jay, the first time where the hit was not on a Kershaw mistake.  Left hander, JP Howell, was ready in the bullpen and should have come into the game at this point.

After striking out Oscar Taveras, Don Mattingly leaves Clayton Kershaw in to pitch to Matt Carpenter.  That is the little thing that we are looking for.   There are only two people on the planet that did not see this Carpenter at bat coming, Don Mattingly and Bernie Miklasz, though I kid about Bernie. As with Kozma, Don Mattingly overlooked the batter and just saw his pitcher being successful.  Taveras, a young slugger, was overly aggressive and swung at pitches he had no business swinging at.  That strikeout was more on Taveras, than Kershaw.  Bravado and support of your players is one thing, but managers are paid to look beyond this and make tough decisions at pivotal moments of a game, especially in the playoffs.

MarpIn what almost looked like a replay from 2013, Matt Carpenter laid off pitches outside the strike zone and fouled off the close ones, waiting for his pitch.   This time it would come on the 8th pitch, a 95 mph fastball that was in nearly the exact same spot as his home run in his previous at bat.  He jumped all over it and hit it to the base of the wall, clearing the bases and giving the Cardinals a 7-6 lead.

Matt Holliday would cement the victory with a three run homer two batters later, but leaving Kershaw in to pitch the Carpenter was the turning point in the game.   With respect to Bernie Miklasz, sometimes what happened last year is still relevant.   And baseball can be just like that.

Credit the Cardinals for being aggressive and not giving up after trailing in the late innings.  On any other regular season game, they might have packed it in and started thinking about the post-game meal and a good night rest.  But this is the playoffs and you have to win one game on the road.  That means playing a hard nine innings, and they did.   Against one of the best.

This series is far from over, so we should take the Game One win in the proper context as a very exciting start to the NLDS.  There is still a lot of baseball to be played, but if you are a Cardinals fan, you have to love the way they battled in this game.  Maybe, just maybe, history will repeat itself and the Cardinals can win this series.

Posted in 2014 Season | Leave a comment

UCB September Project: Top 7 Cardinals Prospects

Though no longer a regular blogger and now just a “Friend of the UCB”, occasionally one of their monthly projects comes along that grabs my attention and makes me want to pick up the keyboard again.   The annual “Top 7 Prospects” is one of those.

1.  Oscar Taveras – OF

Taveras Home Run SwingThe 22 year old outfielder may have lost his rookie status this season, but Cardinals fans have yet to see what the young man is capable of doing.  For that reason, I am keeping him as a prospect and that makes him easily the top of the list.

In parts of six minor league seasons, Oscar Taveras has a career slash line of .320 / .376 / .516 with 122 doubles, 24 triples, 53 home runs and 324 RBIs.  No, that’s not why he is my top prospect.

In 1,860 plate appearances, he has struck out only 243 times.  That is a 13% K rate.   Very impressive for somebody with what can only be described as a violent swing.   Compare that to Matt Adams 17% (who is now an every day player), Randal Grichuk (19%, 23% this year in AAA) and Xavier Scruggs (28%, down to 21% this year).   Put all of this together and that screams future heart of the batting order clutch run producer.   But no, that’s not why Taveras is at the top of my prospect list.

Oscar Taveras, along with Greg Garcia, have won league championships at nearly every level that they have played – Johnson City in 2010, Quad Cities in 2011 and Springfield in 2012.  Along the way, he was joined by Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal, making a most formidable core of young and exciting players.  Barring a horrific mid-season injury and the callup of the those other players in 2013, they may have been able to add another championship in Memphis.

At some point in his career, and it won’t be in 2014, the coaches will finally realize that Oscar is best being just Oscar instead of molded into some other player that they think he needs to be.  When they do, his career will soar, and some of those clutch hits we have missed from Allen Craig, Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran will return to the Cardinals.  In bunches.   This young man is not a future All Star, he will be a Most Valuable Player.  The only questions are how soon, and sadly, which league.

kaminsky2. Rob Kaminsky – LHP

The just turned 20 year old has completed his second professional season in the Cardinals farm system, and what a season it was.  In 18 starts with the Peoria Chiefs, Kaminsky posted an 8-2 record and led all Midwest League starters with a 1.88 ERA.  He has a big league curveball, a more than adequate fastball and work in progress changeup.  Many pitchers have success in the lower levels of a minor league system, so what you want to see are improvements in the key indicators.  For Kaminsky, these are mostly bright green.  He has dropped nearly a walk per 9 innings and his 1.013 WHIP was fourth among starters.   That tells you that he is not only around the plate, but he is missing the fat part of the opponents bats.  For a left hander, especially if they keep developing him for the rotation, you won’t obsess too much over the drop in strikeouts.  A +7 K/9 IP rate is still pretty impressive.

Don’t be surprised of Kaminsky is fast tracked to Springfield (AA) very early next year.

3. Alexander Reyes – RHP

Here is the big right handed power arm to complement Kaminsky, and what an electric arm it is.   He is already in the mid to upper 90s on his fastball and has a very good curveball to go with it. Like Kaminsky, he also just turned 20.   What stands out were his 137 strikeouts in just 109 1/3 innings pitched, up just a bit from his numbers in rookie ball.   That was good for 6th in the Midwest league in K/9IP, second among starters.

The development area for Reyes is control, not uncommon among young flame throwers.  As he learns to repeat his delivery and get a bit more under control, the walks should come down, and when they do, his prospect watch number will skyrocket.

One word of warning here – There Is No Such Thing As A Can’t Miss Pitching Prospect.   I could easily write thousands of words about John Ericks, Brian Barber and dozens of others.   It is early days for both Kaminsky and Reyes, but they do seem to be the genuine article.  Though he won’t make my list for this year, a healthy Tyrell Jenkins could make this group of young pitchers the best we have seen yet.

4. Sam Tuivailala – RHP

Though his named seemed to confound some ESPN broadcasters,  we will all soon learn to pronounce TOO-ee-vah-lah-lah and marvel at the fire he unleashes at opposing hitters.

The date was June 20, 2012, the second game of the season for the Johnson City Cardinals.  Originally drafted as a shortstop in 2010, this would be the last time Sam Tuivailala would appear as a position player.  As the designated hitter, Tuivailala would go 1-4 on the day, the hit being a solo home run in the third inning.  Three weeks later, he would complete the transformation from position player to flamethrowing reliever.   He would collect 23 strikeouts in 13 innings with Johnson City, 50 in 35 1/3 with Peoria in 2013 and 97 over 60 innings in 2014, at the top three levels of the Cardinals farm system.

Cardinals fans that have only seen Sam pitch as part of the expanded September rosters need to remember that he only has 108 1/3 innings as a professional pitcher.   As a result of Rule 5 draft rules, Tuivailala must be protected this December by being placed on the Cardinals protected 40 man roster, and that’s why we have seen him in St. Louis.  We will see him again, and by what we have seen thus far, it won’t be long.

5. Stephen Piscotty – OF

Not Randal Grichuk, in spite of the mounting praise heaped on him from the local sports media, it is instead Stephen Piscotty.  As it turns out, Piscotty has benefited from the utter mess that the front office has made out of the Cardinals right field situation.  While Oscar Taveras and Randal Grichuk were driving up and down I-55, Piscotty was left alone to continue developing his bat.

Though he struggled a bit after the AAA All Star Game, Piscotty ended up with a very nice season in Memphis, confirming what many of us saw earlier – he is a right handed hitting Matt Carpenter.  He led Memphis in hits (114), doubles (32), and third in RBIs (67).  His .288 batting average is third among players with 300 or more plate appearances.     His 61 strikeouts (11%) shows impressive discipline for a production bat and his 43 walks gives his OBP a 70 point bump over his average.   All of these point to a very solid major league hitter.

His defense is good, his arm is very good.   His range may not be quite as great as Randal Grichuk, but he is just as quick to lay out for a line drive.  His arm is a plus and he was third in outfield assists with 4 (Grichuk 9, Robinson 5).

Because he had one more year of Rule 5 protection, Piscotty was not called up when rosters expanded in September.   He will be the Cardinals right fielder in 2016, if not sooner.

6. Jimmy Reed – LHP

This is really my committee pick here and it could easily have gone to John Gast, Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney.   What all of these guys have in common are that they are left handed, control specialists, have effective breaking balls and on any other team would be a lock for the 4th or 5th starter.   Gast cannot stay healthy, but if he does then I may want to rethink this pick.   Cooney is the most developed, leading the PCL in wins while setting the Memphis Redbirds single season record.   Marco Gonzales may have the highest upside, based on rapid rise through the farm system and Tyler Lyons may be the most under appreciated player in the organization.

So why Jimmy Reed over the others ?  One word – complete.   Reed was successful at each level he pitched this year, including a short emergency promotion to Springfield.  He split his 2 decisions at the higher level and did not look at all overmatched as so many young pitchers do in that situation.  He reminded me of Tim Cooney when he was promoted to AA last year.

Reed has a low 90 mph fastball, plus curve and a nice little cutter that he has learned to throw as an out pitch.  Throw in an effective changeup and a good repeatable delivery and there is suddenly a lot to like about Reed.   He doesn’t get the attention that Cooney and Gonzales do, but he might end up being the best of the bunch.

7. Tommy Pham – OF

My twitter followers should be expecting to see the name Tommy Pham somewhere on this list, and I won’t disappoint.   If Tyler Lyons is the most under appreciated pitcher in the Cardinals farm system, Tommy Pham may be the corresponding position player.  Those that have not seem him play will look at his age (26) and immediately dismiss him as too old, ignoring that parts of several seasons were lost to injury.   Others will see 9 minor league seasons and proclaim a AAAA ceiling, ignoring the fact that he was drafted out of high school, and as we have already mentioned, lost a lot of time to injury.

For Pham, the organization asked him to do two things in 2014 after shutting him down last year for shoulder surgery: (1) stay healthy and (2) show that he can play at the highest level of the farm system.   Not only did he accomplish both, he excelled.

Pham started the season as something of the forgotten outfielder behind Oscar Taveras, Stephen Piscotty and newcomer Randal Grichuk.  When Shane Robinson was optioned, Pham dropped even farther back in the depth chart, but that is not the end of the story.  Far from it.

After a slow start, Pham started heating up, earning playing time here and there.   As players started moving up and down I-55, it was Pham that eventually took over in center field.   He also moved up from the scratch and dent part of the batting order to the leadoff spot, where his season took off, just as it did last year in Springfield.   He joined Tyler Lyons and Xavier Scruggs as consecutive winners of the PCL Player of the Week, the first time that has happened in Memphis franchise history.    He led the team in batting average (.324) which is the second highest in team history (Nick Stavinoha .337 in 2008).  His 6 triples and 20 stolen bases also led the team.   He was rewarded by being one of the last minor leaguers to be called up to St. Louis.

Next spring could be a very interesting time for Pham.  He is under team salary control and would seem to offer everything that Shane Robinson (arbitration eligible) does plus a little more, but at league minimum salary.  A bit of pop off the bench and plus defense could earn him a spot as the Cardinals fifth outfielder next year.  That would be, dare I say, Phamtastic.

These are my top prospects, what are some of yours ?  Please let me know in the comments and make sure to read some of the other UCB  member picks.

Posted in 2014 Season, United Cardinals Bloggers | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Sep 19-21, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis

Birds Eye View Header

At this point in the season, there are only two things you need to know. (1) there are only 9 games remaining in the regular season and (2) the Cardinals are currently sitting on top of the NL Central standings with a 2 1/2 game lead over the second place Pittsburgh Pirates.  Clarity is a beautiful thing.

cardinalsFor this, the final series with their divisional rivals from Ohio, the Cardinals have three objectives.

First, and most important, lose fewer games than the Pittsburgh Pirates.  That may be something of a tall task as the Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 games and they next face Milwaukee, where the Cardinals all but ended the Brewers playoff chances.   Here is a quick look at the remaining games for the Cards and Pirates.

Cardinals Schedule Head to Head Pirates Schedule Head to Head
Sep 19-21 Cincinnati (71-82) 10-6 Sep 19-21 Milwaukee (97-74) 5-11
Sep 22-24 at Cubs (68-85) 9-7 Sep 22-25 at Atlanta(97-74) 1-2
Sep 26-28 at Arizona (62-91) 3-0 Sep 26-28 at Cincinnati (71-82) 6-10

Don’t take much comfort in the Pirates losing record against their remaining opponents any more than you should already be proclaiming the Cardinals as NL Central champs.  There is a lot of baseball yet to be played.

The second mission may prove more difficult.   Of the three division leaders in the National League, the Cardinals have the worst road record (36-39).  OK, let’s play that more optimistically – they have the best home record (49-29).   That would seem to suggest they would benefit the most from having home field advantage.   Let’s take a quick look at the home field standings of the teams most likely playing in October.

Team Record Magic Home Number
Washington  88-64  -
LA Dodgers  87-66  9
St. Louis  85-68  7
San Francisco  84-68  7
Pittsburgh  82-70  5

Winning home field throughout the National League playoffs might be an unrealistic goal at this point, but securing that against the first round opponent may be within reach.  Should the Cardinals get the Dodgers in the divisional series, as it looks right now, forcing two Clayton Kershaw starts in St. Louis might be the difference in a series that on paper is too close to call.

The final thing to be settled over these remaining nine games is who will be on the post-season roster and in what capacity.  The outfield appears to be set with Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos, Oscar Taveras and Randal Grichuk in the strangest platoon you could imagine.  Catching also seems a no-brainer with AJ Pierszynski  in the backup role.  The last roster moves prior to the September callups lock in Pete Kozma in the final spot.  The two question marks are Tony Cruz and Xavier Scruggs.  At this point, it doesn’t appear that either will make the club, leaving the team with a weakened bench and lack of first base depth.  Though he scored the winning run in last night’s thrilling extra inning game, Matt Adams has been struggling at the plate lately.  Both Cruz and Scruggs have 9 games left to change some minds and kick somebody else off the roster.

The pitching situation is about as clear as water from the Mississippi River.  Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller have pitched well enough recently to earn not only a spot, but one where you expect a win each time out.  Marco Gonzales has also looked impressive and should get some consideration for post-season action, in some capacity.  That leaves John Lackey and Michael Wacha battling for the final  spot in the rotation.   The Cardinals gave up a lot of talent to acquire Lackey, and for one reason – pitching in October.  He has a big game reputation but has yet to put that on display in St. Louis.  Michael Wacha has perhaps a bigger reputation considering what he did in post-season last year.  But he is still in a rehab situation and hasn’t looked sharp in any of his recent starts.   Each will get a start in this series with the Reds.

The best case scenario for the Cardinals is that both step up with Lackey in the rotation and Wacha in the bullpen.  If either pitcher steps up in these final starts, it will be a huge lift to the Cardinals for October.  If both do, the Cardinals could go deep into the playoffs.

The bullpen is an embarrassment of riches in comparison to the rotation.  Trevor Rosenthal, Pat Neshek, Carlos Martinez, Seth Maness, Randy Choate are all locked in (Choate due to his contract situation, the others for recent performance).  With options available on the remaining relievers, Mike Matheny can choose between Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales, Kevin Siegrist and Sam Freeman to fill out his bullpen.

reds-logoFor the Cincinnati Reds, injuries and a second half collapse has turned them into the role of spoiler.  They should not be taken lightly over this three game series.  While they will not be playing baseball in October, a few of their players might take great pleasure in extending that same courtesy to the Cardinals.   These three games in St. Louis will complete a nine game road trip for the Reds where they lost 2 of 3 to the Brewers and were swept by the Cubs.   The Cardinals have won the last 11 3-game home series against the Reds.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, September 19 – 7:15 pm CDT

John Lackey (13-9, 3.97) vs David Holmberg (1-1, 6.00)

For John Lackey, this is simple – pitch like they guy the Cardinals thought they were acquiring at the trade deadline.  Don’t get thrown out by arguing balls and strikes with the umpire and channel all of that emotion into seven or more strong innings.  With the early ejection in his last start, he should be well rested.   A 13 inning game last night might put a strain on the bullpen, even with expanded roster.  Lackey needs to go deep and pitch convincingly.

For David Holmberg, just standing on the mound may be enough.  He is a soft tossing lefty and that is the Cardinals kryponite.  He made an emergency long relief appearance against the Cardinals  two weeks ago when starter Dylan Axelrod had to leave with an injury in the first inning.   He threw 5 2/3 scorless innings, keeping the Cardinals bats off balance.  He followed that by a six inning win against the Brewers.  Maybe with some preparation and seeing him the second time, the Cardinals will do better against him than they did the last time.  They can’t do worse.

TV: Fox Sports Midwest, Fox Sports Ohio

Radio: KMOX (1120), WLW (700)

Saturday, September 20 – 6:10 pm CDT

Michael Wacha (5-6, 3.14) vs Mike Leake (11-12. 3.65)

Michael Wacha has two more starts to earn some sort of role in the Cardinals post-season.   With Shelby Miller looking sharp lately and a good outing from John Lackey, the urgency to throw Wacha into October could die down a bit, but he remains an important insurance policy.  When on, he has shown to be a force on the mound.  There should be no pitch limit this time out – it will be his game to win or lose on his own.

Mike Leake is 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA against the Cardinals in his career.   The Cardinals have historically hit him well, but he silenced those same bats in his last start.  Which Mike Leake will show up ?  And which Cardinals offense ?

20050430-8304 Kyle scratching his head

TV: Fox Sports One

Radio: KMOX (1120), WLW(700)

Sunday, September 21 – 7:07 pm CDT

Lance Lynn (15-9, 2.68) vs Alfredo Simon (14-10, 3.35)

In any other year, fans would be dreading a Lance Lynn start this late in the season.  But 2014 has proven to be either a breakout season for the big right hander, or an outlier for those that don’t yet have confidence in him.   Lance Lynn is currently 5th in the National League in ERA (2.68), just ahead of Zack Greinke’s 2.75.  Let that sink in for a few minutes.   He may even finish the season in the top 10 for Cy Young voting.   He will not hit 200 innings this year, but will end up very close.   The easiest job in baseball right now might be his agent.

Alfredo Simon, the 33 year old right hander, was thrown into the rotation due to the Mat Latos injury and pitched well in the first half.  Since going 4-0 in June, Simon has been under .500 and his ERA has taken nearly a 2 run a game hit.   The 185 innings he has thrown so far are the most of his professional career and may be taking its toll.   His numbers suggest he is best used out of the bullpen, but was just not an option for the Walt Jocketty and the Reds this season.

TV: ESPN (National)

Radio: KMOX (1120), WLW(700)


This series preview has been written by Bob Netherton, from the mostly historical blog On the Outside Corner,  You can also find Bob on Twitter during game time at @CardinalTales.

We hope that you have been enjoying these Cardinals series previews.  If you are not already receiving these by email, please see the Bird’s Eye View Registration.

Posted in 2014 Season, Bird's Eye View | Leave a comment

UCB Progressive Game Blog: Los Angeles at St. Louis, July 19, 2014

Each year, members of the United Cardinal Bloggers get together and publish a progressive game blog.   For this season, it is a Saturday afternoon meeting between the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals in what could be a preview of a playoff series in October.   Before thinking too much about that, let’s get through the game this afternoon.

We pick up the action from Doug at Baseball Geek in Galveston as the game moves into the eighth inning.   The Cardinals are holding on to a 4-1 lead with all of their runs coming in the first inning.

Joe Kelly gave the Cardinals all they could ask for in his second start since coming off the disabled list.   For seven innings, he kept the Dodgers in check, allowing just one run back in the third inning.   For Kelly, this would be the seventh time in his career in which he worked into the seventh inning, but only the second where he would finish it.   The other time was a 6-4 loss in Milwaukee last September.   All he can do now is watch as hard throwing left hander, Sam Freeman (1-0, 1.42 ERA) , takes over in the eighth.   Allen Craig, who pinch hit for Oscar Taveras in the seventh inning, stays in the game and will play left field.   Jon Jay moves from left to right field.

Freeman, who just turned 27 a few weeks ago, has been something of an enigma over his six  professional seasons.   Freeman has always pitched well in the minor leagues, striking out nearly a batter an inning.   He was exceptional last year, posting a 7-2 record for Memphis, all in relief.   His ERA over almost 70 innings was 2.97, which is a good number for the offensively friendly Pacific Coast League.   While he has had great success in the minors, that has not always been the case in the majors.   If there is a weakness in Freeman’s game, it is control.  He has made a noticeable improvement in that this season as you can see in his strikeout/walk rate, finally sneaking above the benchmark rate of 2:1 (2.25:1).

That wildness would get to Freeman this afternoon.  He wasn’t missing by much, but seemed to have a hard time finding home plate umpire, Ron Kulpa’s, strike zone.  In defense of Freeman, it took both Joe Kelly and Zack Greinke a few innings to find it as well.  Freeman had just three batters in which to find it.

The first man Freeman would face is Dodgers third baseman, Justin Turner.  Turner came into the game as part of a double switch with reliever Paul Maholm, who would be batting in Juan Uribe’s spot in the order.   After getting ahead of Turner, a 1-2 count, Freeman misses on three straight pitches, yielding a leadoff walk.

That turns the dangerous Dodgers batting order over and brings up leadoff hitter, Dee Gordon.   Gordon was 2-3 with a stolen base and run scored in his previous three plate appearances.  Freeman needs to be careful here.   As with the previous batter, Gordon works the count full.   He slaps a high inside fastball into right center field.   A good play by Jon Jay cuts off the ball, keeping Turner from scoring.   Gordon ends up with a double.

That brings the tying run to the plate in Carl Crawford.   Crawford is 0-3 so far with a double play and strikeout.   On a 2-2 pitch, Crawford hits a fly ball to medium left center field.    It is deep enough to score Turner, but a good  throw by Peter Bourjos holds Gordon at second.   The Cardinals lead is now 4-2.

With a pair of right handed hitters coming up, Mike Matheny makes another pitching change, bringing in the right-hander, Pat Neshek (4-0, 0.69 ERA) .  This will be Neshek’s 45th appearance, leading all Cardinals pitchers.   If Neshek works out of this jam, Trevor Rosenthal will also make his 45th appearance in the ninth.   But that is a big if at this point in the game.

Matt Kemp will pinch hit for Yasiel Puig.  Puig was hit in the hand by a Joe Kelly pitch back in the third inning.   While it did not prevent him from playing in the field, a weak pop up in his last at bat suggests that his hitting may be a bit off as a result.   With the game on the line, Don Mattingly opts for Matt Kemp.

Neshek works Matt Kemp on both sides of the plate.  Kemp fouls off a couple of pretty good 1-2 pitches.   On a 2-2 pitch, Neshek floats an 82 mph slider over the plate that Matt Kemp swung through.   For most other pitchers, that one would have tied the game.  With Neshek’s deceptive delivery, it was just another frustrating strikeout for a right handed hitter.

Hanley Ramirez would provide much less drama in his at bat as he took a lot of big swings and came up empty.   Neshek works out of trouble and the Cardinals will take a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the inning.

The Cardinals go quickly in their half of the eighth inning.  With one out, Jon Jay lays down a perfect bunt for single.   Unfortuantely, pinch hitter, Tony Cruz, grounds into a double play.

After 8 innings, the Cardinals lead 4-2.    Into the ninth inning we go, and for that, I turn you over to Daniel Shoptaw at the Cards Conclave.




Posted in 2014 Season, United Cardinals Bloggers | 2 Comments

The Oscar Taveras Non-decision

In last night’s Memphis Redbirds thrilling win over the Tacoma Rainiers, Matt Adams went 1-4, with a double and two RBIs.  While that is not exactly raking, it does have to be taken in the context of the duration of a minor league rehab assignment.  One that looks like it will be coming to an end today.   The implication is that a roster move will need to be made to make room for the Cardinals big first baseman, leading some to speculate that it might be Oscar Taveras.

Not so fast.

The lack of offensive production by Peter Bourjos (.280 OBP) compared to Jon Jay (.357 OBP) may have put center field in play once again, suggesting that it might be Randal Grichuk that stays in St. Louis over Oscar Taveras.  Whether it is the way he has been used to date or that this is just what to expect offensively from Bourjos, a .280 OBP is not enough when the rest of the team is under performing as it has.   That said, if center field was really in play, Shane Robinson (.343 / .410 / .410, 4 SB) would be sharing the ride with Matt Adams and both Taveras and Grichuk would be returning to Memphis.

In a recent radio interview on KMOX, Cardinals General Manager, Jon Mozeliak, made the comment that constantly bouncing a young player from the majors to the minors can put them at developmental risk, and that you can lose some of them in the process.   In nearly the same breath, he was praising Oscar Taveras for his at-bats thus far and adding that when they decided to call him up, they would give him a long evaluation to see where he was.   That doesn’t sound like he was just a temporary fill in for an injured player.

So, about that center field thing.   Don’t be too surprised if you see Taveras get some playing time there in the coming days.   He has played center field in the minors (228 games), and while not dazzling, his athletic ability and strong arm can compensate for his shortcomings.  Not enough to be a Peter Bourjos or Shane Robinson, but enough to give him the playing time edge over Jon Jay, should Mike Matheny continue to play the platoon game with Peter Bourjos.   Perhaps more significant, the offensive upside of Taveras, who doesn’t look like a rookie at the plate, over Grichuk and Jay far exceeds their defensive differences.   That is not to suggest that Taveras should be the every day center fielder, but an occasional platoon there to get his bat in the lineup should be enough to keep him in St. Louis instead of Memphis.

So how would this really work ?

Since joing the Cardinals in 2009, the now 34 year old Matt Holliday has played a lot.   Take away what should have been a pair of trips to the disabled list in 2011, he has been out there nearly every game.   While he has a track record of slow starts, getting red hot in the summer, Holliday’s numbers show a player in something of a decline.  Nothing to punch the panic alarm over, but it is there nonetheless.  As we have seen lately with Yadier Molina, an occasional day off might be prudent approach going forward with Matt Holliday.   Just taking one day off per week (27) would still give Matt Holliday 130 games a year, which is not far off his career average anyway.  It would also add some much needed right handed power off the bench for the times where Taveras gets the start in left field.

The same largely applies to Allen Craig in right field.   The 2013 All Star first baseman is playing in right only because of the Taveras injury last May.  Had Taveras shown up in spring training as confident on his ankle as he is now, he would have made the trip north with the big club to start the season.  Instead, we have Allen Craig playing in right field with Matt Adams at first base.  This is not an optimal situation for the Cardinals, but it is how the roster is constructed and there are only so many ways to move the pieces around.

One way is to set up something of a first base platoon, alternating Craig and Adams.   This might be hard to accept, given Adams early season hitting, but Allen Craig is finally starting to come around.  Since May 1, Craig is hitting .269, which is not great.  His 22 RBIs over that period is.  What’s more, projected out to a full season, that looks like 100 RBIs, which is not that far off the RBI machine that we have seen in the past.  A lot of Craig’s production is due to Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong getting on base, and perhaps Adams would have had the same results had they done that earlier in the season.   Instead of over analyzing the “what if”, the takeaway here is that Allen Craig is back to his RBI producing form, and the batting average is heading in the right direction.   An added benefit of a Craig/Adams platoon is that the bench gets a significant upgrade without requiring that John Mozeliak trade away one of his prospects.

For talking purposes, let’s say that the Adams/Craig platoon opens up 3 spots in right field per week, added to the one in left from Matt Holliday – that’s 4 games per week we’ve found for young Mr. Taveras.   Throw in 2 games in center field, not ideal, but won’t exactly kick off the decline of Western Civilization either, and we have found our playing time for one of the most exciting bats in the Cardinals system.

Whether Mike Matheny will embrace this kind of idea remains to be seen.  He does favor his players, with a special affinity for Jon Jay, which is understandable given that Jay is one of only two Cardinals with a .300 batting average (Matt Adams the other).   Jay has looked better at the plate lately, and he seems to be running the bases much faster than we’ve seen him in the past, but that is just not enough to take playing time away from Oscar Taveras.

The proper roster move tomorrow, when Matt Adams is activated, is to send Randal Grichuk back to Memphis to work on his hitting.   He has shown some ability, suggesting that he could be a future corner outfielder with St. Louis, or some other organization.   Right now, he is over matched at the plate, which is completely expected from a 22 year old with less than 200 plate appearances at the AAA level.  Allen Craig had nearly 1,000 for comparison.  Let the young man finish his development program and become the player that we have seen in brief moments.

Perhaps the solution to the Cardinals offensive problems is right there in front of Mike Matheny as he fills out his lineup card.  4 men, (Holliday, Adams, Craig, Taveras) and 4 positions (LF, RF, 1B, power off the bench).  Craig and Taveras are he two that need to be out there every day, rotating positions if required.   No need for a trade, just a little bit of common sense when putting pen to paper each day.

Posted in 2012 Season, 2014 Season | 3 Comments

June 4-5 – St. Louis at Kansas City

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The Cardinals struggles through the month of May have continued into June as the I-70 series heads west to complete an abbreviated home and away series at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.

royals logoThe Royals (28-30, 5 games out) can improve to .500 for the first time since May 24 with a sweep of the Cardinals in the final two games.  Picked my some analysts to reach the playoffs for the first time since defeating the Cardinals in 1985, the Royals have hung around the .500 mark all season, from a high of 2 games over to a recent low of 4 games under.  While the Royals record is certainly trending in the right direction, a lack of offense has prompted them to rearrange their on-field staff, with former Cubs manager, Dale Sveum taking over as the hitting coach, the Royals fifth in three seasons.   The Royals are currently 12th in averate (.254), 21st in runs scored (227) and dead last in home runs (26).  The Cardinals are right there with them at 15th in average (.252), 23rd in runs scored (225) and next to last in home runs (32).  Could that mean that John Mabry is on the hot seat in St. Louis ?

At 5 games out of first place, the Royals, a 10.5% chance to make the playoffs, are in something of a predicament heading into the trade season.  They are close enough that a good week could change those odds significantly.  A two game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis could well be the start of that week.  The month of June will tell whether they are sellers or buyers at the trade deadline.  James Shields, a free agent at the end of this season, has been linked to the Toronto Blue Jays in possible trade rumors.

cardinalsFor the Cardinals (30-29, 5 games behind), all that we can say about April May  is that they survived it. Though continuing to struggle around the .500 mark, the Cardinals still carry a 55% chance to make the playoffs, something that fans watching the last few games may scoff at.

The early season stress placed upon the young Cardinals bullpen is beginning to show up in the box score as the Cardinals have started leaking runs in the late innings.  While Trevor Rosenthal is starting to regain his form from 2013, Carlos Martinez is looking more and more lost with each outing.  The lone bright spots in the bullpen are off season acquisition, Pat Neshek and the recently called up Sam Freeman, though the “small sample size” warning should be applied in Freeman’s case.

The sputtering Cardinals offense showed some signs of life in the second game of the series, prompting some short lived enthusiasm.  The bullpen failed to hold a slim late inning lead and the Royals took both games at Busch Stadium.   If there is anything positive to take into the final two games of this series, it will be that the Royals will have to face the top of the Cardinals rotation in Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.  Though he stumbled in his last outing, Wainwright is on a Cy Young type of pace this season.

Probable Pitchers

Wednesday, June 4 – 7:10pm CDT

Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.32) vs Jason Vargas (5-2, 3.39)

Adam Wainwright will try to become the National League’s first 9 game winner as the takes the mound for the Cardinals in the short series opener.  Wainwright is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA and a save in 6 starts and 3 career relief appearances against the Royals.

His opponent will be Jason Vargas, a veteran left hander, who has pitched well for the Royals.   He does throw inside which could prove most interesting for a young hitter like Oscar Taveras.  While Kauffman is a spacious ballpark, a mistake that isn’t far enough inside to Taveras and not even the K will be able to contain that kind of blast.

Vargas is something of a mystery to most of the Cardinals roster.  Mark Ellis has hit him well in the past, so don’t be surprised if he gets the start over Kolten Wong, in spite of Wong’s first career home run last night.

TV: Fox Sports Midwest, Fox Sports Kansas City

Radio: KMOX (1120), KCSP (610)

Thursday, June 5 – 7:10 pm CDT

Michael Wacha (4-3, 2.45) vs Yordano Ventura (2-5, 3.45)

Michael Wacha continues to be the unfortunate victim of lack of run support.  And bad weather.  There is a chance of rain for this game – of course there is.   If there was any question about Michael Wacha, his six shutout innings against the Giants on May 31 should put those to an end.   Perhaps it was just a bout of dead arm, but his strikeout rates were declining and his walk rate increasing – not a good sign.  But he was as good as we’ve seen in his last start.  A relatively low pitch count due to a rain delay may play in Wacha’s advantage in the series finale.

The Royals have opted to go a different direction than the Cardinals in the case of their former No. 2 prospect, Yordano Ventura.  The 23 year old right hander has an electric arm with a huge fastball, good curve and deceptive off speed pitches.  That pitch assortment has future closer written all over it, but the Royals are keeping him in the rotation for now.  Many Cardinals fans have been pleading for a similar treatment for Carlos Martinez in St. Louis.  Ventura had to leave the his last start with elbow soreness after just 3 innings, prompting the Royals to skip him the last time through the rotation.  He will make the start in the finale of this four game series on 9 days rest, and a big question mark.

TV: Fox Sports Midwest, Fox Sports Kansas City

Radio: KMOX (1120), KCSP (610)

Injury Update – Kansas City

Luke Hochevar (RHP) is out for the season, recovering from Tommy John surgery in March.

Danny Valencia (3B) was placed on the 15 day disabled list on June 1 with a sprained muscle in his left hand.

Bruce Chen (LHP) is on the 15 day disabled list with a bulging disc.  He has started a rehab program with the Royals AA Affiliate in Northwest Arkansas.

Injury Update – St. Louis

Matt Adams (1B) was placed on the 15 day disabled list on may 29 with left calf tightness.  Oscar Taveras was called up to take Adams place on the active roster.  The Adams injury is not presumed to be serious and he should come back on or around the 15 days required.

Keith Butler (RHP) is out for the season, recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Butler told fans via Twitter that his surgery went well and he is optimistic for a full recovery.

Joe Kelly (RHP) continues to remain on the disabled list with a hamstring injury.  He has started throwing from flat ground, but no timetable for his return as been set.

Tyler Lyons (LHP) is on the 15 day disabled list with a shoulder strain.  He has started throwing again, but there is no timetable for a possible return to the Cardinals.

Kevin Siegrist (LHP) has begun throwing and may return to the Cardinals some time in June.


This series preview has been written by Bob Netherton, from the mostly historical blog On the Outside Corner,  You can also find Bob on Twitter during game time at @CardinalTales.

We hope that you have been enjoying these Cardinals series previews.  If you are not already receiving these by email, please see the Bird’s Eye View Registration.

Posted in 2014 Season, Bird's Eye View | Leave a comment

May 2-4, St. Louis at Chicago Cubs

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Coming off a difficult first month of the season where they played 21 of 29 games against division rivals, the Cardinals hope that May will bring a less demanding schedule. Over the next  four and a half weeks, they will play most of the games at home and against teams not in their division.   Two long home stands might be just what the Cardinals need to close the gap with the division leading Milwaukee Brewers.   They have to go through Chicago and Pittsburgh first.

chicago-cubs-wrigley-field-100th-anniversary-logoThe Cubs (9-17, 9 1/2 games out) had a similar schedule to start the 2014 season, playing most of their games against teams in the NL Central, including 3 against the Cardinals.  At 9-17, they share the cellar of the division with the Pittsburgh Pirates, 9 1/2 games out of first place.  Like the Cardinals, the Cubs woes seem to be consistent offensive production from their regular position players.   Entering this series, only 4 regulars have a batting average over .250 (the Cardinals have just 5).

Where the two teams differ is in pitching.  While the Cubs have a good 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation with Jeff Samardzija and veteran Jason Hammel, they would be a 3rd and 4th starter in the Cardinals rotation.   The bottom three, including former Cardinal Edwin Jackson, have been inconsistent.  Their bullpen has also been roughed up, especially veteran Jose Veres, who has last his job as closer after his second blown save, ironically in St. Louis.   Hector Rondon has been sensational as his replacement and should be expected to protect a late inning lead, if given the opportunity.

cardinalsFor the Cardinals (15-14, 5 games behind), all that we can say about April is that they survived it.  With a favorable schedule ahead, including warmer weather, there is a lot of reason to be optimistic about next few weeks.

While the bullpen has had its shares of early season troubles, the starting rotation has been very good, especially at the top with Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.  Both pitchers could easily have another win already, perhaps more if the Cardinals offense could muster up a few key hits.

Offense has been the Cardinals Achilles Heel so far in the 2014 season.  It is easy to criticize roster construction, but the problem truly lies in the starting 8 position players.   Matt Adams and Yadier Molina have been carrying the team through the first five weeks of the season, with Matt Holliday getting some big hits in key moments, but not a lot elsewhere.   Fortunately,  two of the three Matt’s (Carpenter and Holliday) are starting to hit, and Allen Craig has finally broken through the Mendoza line, now hitting .220.   Jon Jay has been a very pleasant surprise, hitting near his career average and driving in 10 runs.  Jay has turned off season acquision, Peter Bourjos, into a bench player, where he has a history of struggling.  Jhonny Peralta, Mark Ellis, Peter Bourjos and Daniel Descalso all continue to struggle at the plate, and all but Bourjos offer weaker defense than the alternatives, which is a bad combination for the Cardinals.   That prompted a roster move before the last series, sending Kolten Wong and Shane Robinson down to Memphis to join Pete Kozma who had been optioned earlier.  In their place, the Cardinals called up Randal Grichuk and Greg Garcia.   Mike Matheny continues to juggle his lineup, hoping to find a combination of hitters that can generate some runs.

The bullpen has been something of a Jekyll and Hyde so far.  Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist have been very good, though Siegrist has been used sparingly.  Though Mike Matheny has given public words of support for Seth Maness, he has struggled to find his 2013 self and may be one or two rough outings away from a road trip south on I-55.  Off season acquisition, Pat Neshek, has been inconsistent, but largely effective.  Cardinals GM, John Mozeliak, has been rolling in and out young arms from Memphis to fill out the remaining bullpen spots.  Eric Fornataro has been good in his first few outings.   A combination of Sam Freeman, Jose Almarante, Jorge Rondon, Keith Butler and David Aardsma await their opportunity in Memphis.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, May 2 – 1:20PM CDT

Adam Wainwright (5-1, 1.20) vs Travis Wood (1-3, 3.52)

With the off day for travel, Cardinals manager, Mike Matheny, has opted to skip Tyler Lyons for the series opener.  In his place, Adam Wainwright will get the start on regular rest.   He carries a 25 inning scoreless streak into the game, which probably played a big part in Matheny’s decision.   Wainwright has faced the Cubs once this season, at home, and won that game despite giving up 4 runs over 7 innings (2/3 of his total runs allowed in 2014).

Travis Wood has been good in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field this season, allowing one run in each of his two starts.  Since the Cardinals have trouble facing lefties, we should expect another solid outing, and a close game.   In his career, Wood is 3-5 against the Cardinals and carries a lofty 5.16 ERA.

TV: Fox Sports Midwest, CSN and Nationally on the MLB Network

Radio: KMOX (St. Louis), WGN (Chicago)

Saturday, September 7 – 12:05 pm CDT

Michael Wacha (2-2, 2.48) vs Jake Arrieta (no record)

Michael Wacha has added a breaking pitch to his repertoire for this season.   If he can learn to throw it as effectively as his fastball and change up, he could develop into an elite starter in the National League.   His record does not indicate how well he has pitched.  Unlike Lance Lynn, Wacha seems to be the guy in the rotation that just doesn’t get any run support, so has to throw a shutout to win.   He deserves a better fate than he has been receiving, and should benefit the most as the Cardinals bats start heating up.

Jake Arrieta will get his first start of the 2014 season.   He came out of spring training suffering from shoulder soreness and was placed on the disabled list.   He has one career start against the Cardinals, an impressive win where he threw 7 shutout innings.

TV: Fox Sports Midwest,  CSN and nationally on Fox Sports 1

Radio: KMOX (St. Louis), WGN (Chicago)

Sunday, September 8 – 7:05pm CDT

Lance Lynn (4-1, 3.60) vs Jason Hammell (4-1, 2.08)

Lance Lynn continues to pitch just well enough to win, given some run support, often times ridiculously generous support.    That might be a tough task against one of the Cubs better free agent signings, Jason Hammell.  Hammel is throwing no hitter stuff so far this season and he is compounding that by not giving up a lot of walks.  An inconsistent Cardinals offense plus Lynn’s tendency to give up a big inning tilts the series finale in the Cubs favor.

This will be the first of three appearances for the Cardinals this month on ESPN’s national broadcast.


Radio: KMOX, WGN

Injury Update

The Cardinals have shared some encouraging news as both Jaime Garcia and Jason Motte will begin rehab assignments with the Springfield Cardinals this weekend.  Garcia will get the start for Springfield on Sunday.


This series preview has been written by Bob Netherton, from the mostly historical blog On the Outside Corner,  You can also find Bob on Twitter during game time at @CardinalTales.

We hope that you have been enjoying these Cardinals series previews.  If you are not already receiving these by email, please see the Bird’s Eye View Registration.

Posted in 2014 Season, Bird's Eye View | Leave a comment

2013 Cardinals Bloggers Awards Ballot

The November United Cardinal Bloggers project is one of my favorites as we get to look back at the highs and lows of the previous season, and more importantly, recognize some of the great contributors in the group.   With great pleasure, here is my ballot for 2013.

1) Cardinal Position Player of the Year: Yadier Molina

Molina justified his contract extension by nearly matching his career season in 2012 while nursing a group of young pitchers all the way to the World Series.  If we had to post our ballots in early September, I might have gone with Allen Craig.   But when all of the dust finally settled on the 2013 season, Yadier Molina was the Cardinals most valuable player and probably should have won the award for the National League (no disrespect to Andrew McCutchen).

2) Cardinal Pitcher of the Year: Trevor Rosenthal

Adam Wainwright was every bit the ace of the staff that we expected him to be, and he will likely win the award.  But Trevor Rosenthal gave us something truly special this season, as he transformed himself from curious hard throwing setup guy into a dominating closer that we have not seen since Todd Worrell wore the jersey.   He was a lot of fun to watch in 2013 and I can’t wait to see what role he plays in 2014.

3) Game of the Year
May 10 vs. Colorado (Miller’s almost-perfecto)
May 11 vs. Colorado (Wainwright’s no-hitter into 8th)

How can you possibly separate these two games ?   If I had to pick just one, it would be Wainwright’s near no-hitter as he appeared to be on cruise control for most of the game.   It was one of the most dominating games of his career, and I don’t think it will be the last time he flirts with a no-hitter.

4) Surprise Player of the Year: Kevin Siegrist

I totally get the Matt Carpenter votes in this category, but really ?  OK, maybe all those doubles were a bit unexpected, but wasn’t pretty much everything else he did right on the line with what he had seen him do in the minors and previous spring trainings ?

Siegrist was the Trevor Rosenthal of last season, seemingly coming out of nowhere to dominate the league with high velocity, exceptional control and a composure that is rare in such a young player.  He was brilliant as a starter, but the extra velocity from moving to the pen put him on a fast track, and boy, did he deliver (pun totally intended).

5) Disappointing Player of the Year: David Freese

Fernando Salas had some injury trouble and Pete Kozma was exactly the player we should have expected, so that leaves us with David Freese.   An injury in spring training was probably a big factor in his disappointing year at the plate, which is unfortunate.  It has also become something of a regular pattern.   I wish him the best with the Angels and will fondly remember his heroics while in St. Louis.

6) Rookie of the Year:  Shelby Miller

Until running out of gas in the second half of the season, Shelby Miller was one of the best pitchers in the National League, rookie or not.   A 20 win season is right around the corner for the young right hander and I just hope he will be in the Cardinals rotation when it happens.

7) Acquisition of the Year: Peter Bourjos.   Too soon ????   OK, Randy Choate

Does that need an explanation ?   We might look back at this next year and change it to John Axford, but for now, the veteran lefty did exactly what we expected him to do.   Looking forward to seeing him again next year.

8) Most Anticipated Cardinal: Lee Stoppleman

I’m glad to see Stoppleman on the actual list as I would have written him in had he not been there.  Stoppleman was just sensational in the closer role for Springfield and in a very brief time in Memphis, showed he could take on AAA hitters.   Bud Selig might have to intervene should the Cardinals have a bullpen with Kevin Siegrist and Lee Stoppleman – gives me goosebumps to think about that.

For those of you that have not seen Stopplman, he will remind you a lot of Siegrist.   His delivery is a bit more deceptive which makes his 93mph fastball look more like Siegrist’s 97.   He has great control and can work both corners of the plate.   If he can avoid the Eric Fornataro troubles next year, we could see him in St. Louis before the 2014 season comes to an end.
9) Best Individual Cardinal Blog: Retrosimba

I adore Cardinals history and nobody does it better than Mark Tomasik.   I’ve said this many times, had I come across Mark’s writing before I started my own blog, I never would have started it.   As I am preparing to shut mine down, I know that Cardinals history will continue to be taught by one of the best.

10) Best Team Cardinal Blog: Pitchers Hit Eighth

Even though they are now doing it over at Cardinals Conclave, Nick and Josh are two of my favorite writers and they continue to put out great content.

11) Best Media Coverage: Derrick Goold
12) Best Rookie Cardinal Blog: Cardinals Farm

This was a very difficult one as so many great new bloggers have started up this year, and love the new perspectives and enthusiasm.  John’s writing at Cardinals Farm covers a very important area that is not well represented – the minor leagues.   Like Daniel does for the Cardinals, John tries to do for the entire farm system.  Truly a labor of love and I appreciate what it takes to do that.

13) Post of the Year: Matt Holliday: One Of The Most Cost Effective Players In Baseball (stlcupofjoe’s Sports Page)
14) Best UCB Project: Top 7 Prospects

I’m a big fan of the kids down in the minor leagues and this gives us a great chance to share our observations and expectations.

15) Best UCB Podcast: Conversations With C70

How can you not vote for a podcast that starts out with “You are listening to my daddy’s show” ?

16) Best UCB Twitterer; Dennis Lawson @gr33nazn

There are so many great members of the Cardinals Twitter Nation, but Dennis stands out with a rare combination of humor, insight and darn impressive baseball IQ.  Rarely does a day go by that I don’t get a chuckle or two from something Dennis says.

That brings my ballot to a close.   Make sure and check out other ballots over at the UCB Project page.

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