Favorite Obscure Cardinals Player: Ray Washburn (Part 1)

One of the most enjoyable parts of being a member of the United Cardinal Bloggers is participation in the various monthly projects.   This one is of particular interest to me personally, as the subject is “your favorite obscure Cardinals player”.   If you are a reader of this blog or some of my past efforts over at I-70 Baseball, or we share game time conversations over on Twitter, you know that going back and revisiting often forgotten Cardinals is the primary focus of my writing.

When this subject of favorite obscure Cardinal was suggested a few days ago, my head nearly exploded with possibilities, as there are so many stories left untold.   How can you pick a favorite out of Jim Cosman and his delight at being given a full share of the 1967 World Series bonus, or the never quit attitude of Dick Hughes as he pitched in pain with a blown out shoulder.   Then there are the lefties – Al Jackson and Larry Jaster, bench players like Phil Gagliano and Carl Warwick or exceptional substitutes, such as Tito Landrum, Cesar Cedeno or Dan Driessen.   And then there’s always Dal Maxvill.   Who can forget Glen Hobbie or Jack Lamabe ?   This is an impossible task.

Yet, in the volume of words already devoted to this particular topic here, there remains one name curiously absent, or at least downplayed to the point where you could easily overlook it.   That is not by accident, but rather fear – the fear of not adequately telling the story of this particular player.   The former flamethrower that this site is dedicated to is not Bob Gibson, as many might presume.  It is, in fact, Ray Washburn.

College Champ to Cardinals Prospect

A Washington State native, the 6ft 1in right hander attended Whitworth College in Spokane, Washington, playing both baseball and basketball.   During the summers, he would play semi-pro baseball, most notably with Bellingham, Washington (1958) and then in Lethbridge, Alberta (1959).    It was as a member of the Lethbridge White Sox that Washburn would have his first taste of history.   On July 27, 1959, Ray Washburn threw a no-hitter, both striking out and walking eight batters.   Nearly a decade later, he would accomplish the same feat with the Cardinals, except that some of those opponents are now members of Baseball’s Hall of Fame.

It was while pitching for Whitworth College in the 1960 NAIA Championship tournament that scouts took note of Ray Washburn.   Behind the strength of Washburn’s pitching, Whitworth went on to win the championship and Washburn was named tournament MVP.   He would post a 3-0 record, striking out 37 batters in 19 innings, while allowing no runs and just five hits.  Two teams took a special interest in the young flamethrower.   The Los Angeles Dodgers, believing their system had a surplus of pitching prospects, would have assigned Washburn to one of their lower level farm teams.   The Cardinals, recognizing that Washburn’s college and semi-pro experience meant that was nearly ready to pitch in the major leagues, outbid the Dodgers by offering a signing bonus and a spot with their AAA farm club.

Washburn would sign with the Cardinals and reported immediately to their AAA team in Rochester, New York, where he would finish the short season with a 5-4 record and an ERA of 4.45.   Although both were probably gone by the time Washburn arrived, that 1960 Red Wings team also featured a young Bob Gibson and Ray Sadecki.  Rochester fans were treated to some of the best young pitching talent anywhere in baseball.   That team also included the subject of Marilyn Green’s favorite obscure Cardinal.  (no spoilers, you have to click the link to fun out who).

For 1961, Washburn would find himself in the middle an unusual piece of baseball history.   The Cardinals had changed their AAA affiliation from Rochester to the Miami Marlins, and then moved the team to San Juan to start the season.   After a month of poor attendance, the team was moved again, this time to Charleston, West Virginia.   The 23 year old Washburn didn’t seem phased by all of those the transitions, and would lead the team in wins (16) and ERA (2.34, tied with Bobby Tiefenauer).  That performance would earn him a callup when big league rosters expanded in September.

No Looking Back

Washburn would make his major league debut, as many young pitchers do, in a blowout.   For Washburn, this would happen on September, 20, 1961 and his opponent would be the Philadelphia Phillies.   The usually dependable Ernie Broglio had been struggling since his first pitch.  He’d given up two runs in the fourth inning, and a Clay Dalrymple single with two outs in the fifth gave the Phillies a 6-0 lead.   That was it for Broglio, and Cardinals Manager, Johnny Keane gave the ball to his young right hander.

The first batter Washburn would face was future Cardinals third baseman, Charley Smith.  Smith grounded out harmlessly to end the inning.   As it so often happens,  Washburn’s nerves would show a bit in his second inning of work as he walked Ruben Amaro and then hit Johnny Callison with a pitch.   After that, he settled into a groove that we would learn to love over the next decade – a strikeout, a walk and then a double play.   Washburn would finish the game, throwing 4 1/3 innings, not allowing a hit or a run.   Hmm, maybe the Cardinals had something in this Washburn kid.

That long relief effort would earn him a pair of starts as the 1961 season wound down.   In seven solid innings of work against the Braves on September 25, Washburn would allow just two runs – a solo home run by Henry Aaron in the first, and a rookie mistake, balking in a run in the fourth.   He would otherwise pitch brilliantly, but took the loss as the Cardinals could only manage a single run.  As with the no-hitter back in Lethbridge, this would also be an interesting glimpse into Washburn’s future, as run support always seemed to a problem in his starts.

His final start of the season came on September 30, and it would come against the team he faced 10 days earlier, the Philadelphia Phillies.   Washburn would throw a brilliant complete game, allowing just two runs on five hits, striking out seven while walking three.    The 12-2 blowout would be his first career win.

Washburn’s solid performance would continue in the spring of 1962, and he would make the big club as they headed north to start the regular season.   He would begin the season in the rotation, but after 4 starts, Washburn would find himself in the bullpen, in spite of a 2-0 record.   At that point, he was giving up nearly 5 runs a game.   Cardinals manager, Johnny Keane, kept moving his pitchers around in what turned out to be an unusual six man rotation of Larry Jackson, Bob Gibson, Ernie Broglio, Curt Simmons, Ray Washburn and Ray Sadecki.   With four of these starters aged 26 years or less, the future looked very bright for the Cardinals, if Keane could just find the right combination of starters.

Washburn would finish the 1962 season with a 12-9 record and an ERA just over 4 runs per game.  It was a very impressive rookie season, but the best and worst were yet to come.

Nearly Perfect

Coming out of the 1962 regular season, and preparing for the 1963 Spring Training, there was a lot of optimism about the Cardinals chances to win the NL Pennant.   Their starting rotation of Larry Jackson, Ernie Broglio, Bob Gibson, Curt Simmons and Ray Washburn was as good as any in baseball, and there was a young left handed phenom, Ray Sadecki, waiting in the wings in case any of the five went down with an injury, or perhaps, a trade that was too good to pass up.   One of those had already happened, just weeks after the season ended, when the Cardinals sent long time staff ace, Larry Jackson, to the Cubs in a six player deal.  The key player received was George Altman, whom Cardinals General Manager, Bing Devine, had hoped would be the answer to the revolving door in right field.   He wasn’t, and it would take yet another deal with Cubs a year later to solve that mystery, but that’s a story for another day.

For Washburn, the sophomore jinx would not come in the form of a bad season.   Quite the opposite in fact.   The now 24 year old would breeze through his first three starts of the 1963 season, winning all three in complete games.   Over those first 27 innings, he would strike out 21 while walking just 5.  The five runs he allowed gave him a sparkling ERA of just 1.67.

Those were just an opening act for what may have been his greatest single performance, well actually performances, in his career.  Both of these took place just a month before his 25th birthday.

The date was April 27, 1963 and the Cardinals were in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers, ironically, the team that Washburn turned down.  Both teams would be witness to near perfection as Washburn just overpowered the Dodgers hitters.  Forget that Larry Sherry was also pitching a gem, the story of the night was Washburn as he retired the Dodgers batters in order – a groundout to the pitcher, a strikeout and then a groundout to a middle infielder.  Nothing was hit squarely, so nothing was hit particularly hard.   As the game progressed, Washburn was throwing harder and harder, and there is where the sophomore jinx would come into play.

When Washburn retired Maury Wills on a dropped third stike for the second out in the seventh inning, he had retired the first 20 batters.   Just three balls had been hit beyond the infield, and all three were caught.   Well, there was a fourth, and it was dropped for an error, but it was a foul ball.   Washburn’s bid for a perfect game came to an end when he walked Ron Fairly, the first Dodgers base runner.   He would fan Frank Howard to end the inning, keeping the no-hitter and shutout in tact, at least for the moment.

Bill “Moose” Skowron

With one out in the eighth, Washburn would lose the no-hitter when former Yankees slugger, Bill “Moose” Skowron,  hit a clean line drive single to right field.   Washburn would give up two more hits, but he would finish the game, recording his fourth win on the season, and second complete game shutout.

But this win would take its toll, and forever alter the career of Ray Washburn.   As he threw harder with each successive inning in the cool night air in Los Angeles, he was slowly tearing a muscle in his right shoulder.

At first, nothing seemed wrong as Washburn would be nearly as brilliant in his next start at home against the Cubs.   As with his previous outing in Los Angeles, he would take a no-hitter late into the game, and as before, throwing too hard on a particularly cold day in St. Louis continued to damage the muscles in his right shoulder.

Washburn would lose his second  no-hit attempt in the seventh inning when future Cardinal, Lou Brock, singled to lead off the inning.   Ron Santo would add a single in the eighth inning as Washburn took a two hit shutout into the ninth inning.  He would not finish the game.   After retiring the first two Cubs hitter, a double and single would bring Ron Santo back to the plate and Santo would victimize Washburn with a long three run homer.   The Cardinal lead was now just a single run at 4-3, so Johnny Keane went to his bullpen for Ed Bauta, who got the last out, preserving the win for Washburn.   It would be his fifth …. and last on the season.

Washburn would last just 2 2/3 innings in his next start, at home, against the Dodgers.   He would surrender 5 runs in the short outing.   He would also take his first loss on the season.   After struggling through two more six inning outings, things turned from bad to worse.  After two more starts where he didn’t even get out of the third inning, Washburn’s spot in the rotation was giving to Ron Taylor.

The most interesting of these rough Washburn starts was on May 29, against the Houston Colt 45s.   After walking Ernie Fazio with two outs in the third inning, Washburn had to be taken out of the game.  His relief pitcher was Bob Gibson, who threw 6 1/3 innings, nearly the equivalent of a regular start.  Bobby Shanz would earn the win in extra innings when Bill White hit a walk-off home run in the tenth inning.

After skipping his next two starts, Washburn’s 1963 season would come to an end on June 14, after facing just one batter.  What had started out as a most promising season, a 4-0 record with four complete games and two shutouts, ended after just 11 appearances, and a final record of 5-3.

1964 would not fare much better for the young right hander.  An injury in spring training sidelined Washburn for the first month of the season.  After a quick tuneup in the minors, he would join the team in early May.  It first looked encouraging as Washburn won his first two starts.  It soon became evident that his torn shoulder muscle had not fully recovered.  Lacking the velocity on he once had on his fastball, opponents started hitting him with more authority.  It wasn’t just Washburn having troubles in the early going, Ernie Broglio looked nothing like the pitcher who had gone 60-38 over the last four seasons.   Cardinals manager, Johnny Keane, kept juggling the rotation, hoping to find four or five that he could begin to pencil in every day.

As the calendar turned from June to July, Washburn was moved from the rotation into the bullpen.   He would make just three appearances before being placed on the disabled list, missing the next two months.  He would make two more relief appearances late in the season, but would be left off the World Series roster.  One of the Cardinals brightest young stars, whose quick rise to the major leagues allowed Bing Devine to assemble the final pieces of a championship team, did not throw a single pitch in the postseason.

This is just the beginning of the story.   We’ll continue with part 2 in a couple of days.

I’m Sorry, Marty

Some time ago, I wrote a short piece that was not particular flattering to the Reds Hall of Fame broadcaster, Marty Brennaman.   It was about some negative comments Brennaman made following a Chris Carpenter outing where a combination of humidity and winds turned a celebratory fireworks display into a nightmarish cloud of smoke.  Brennaman played his part of the homer broadcaster, and I did mine in return, sharing my displeasure of the comments.  Ironically, it is still the most read article on this site and accounts for nearly half of all of the traffic that this blog receives.

Tonight, I learned about something that makes me want to take nearly all of those harsh words back, and offer Brennaman an apology.   Tonight, Marty Brennaman did something admirable, so special that even a die hard Cardinals fan has to stop what he’s doing and give him a standing ovation.

Earlier in the season, Brennaman told Reds bench coach, Chris Speier (who also happened to make a brief stop in St. Louis in 1984) that he would shave his head if the Reds won ten games in a row.  I wonder what possessed him to make such an offer, but at the time it seemed a distant possibility at best.   Like Alpha Centauri distant.  No, like the Cubs winning the World Series distant.

But it did happen, and Brennaman is now on the hook to put up or shut up.   This is where the remarkable part of the story begins.  Unlike the Donald Trump/Vince MacMahon affair that would make Narcissus hide in shame, Brennaman turned this into a charity opportunity.   He said that he would have his head shaved at the game on Friday evening if they could raise $20,000 for the Reds Community Fund.   At game time, they had raised over $50,000.

Just a short while ago, in front of a large and enthusiastic home crowd, Brennaman made good on his words.   Here is Reds second baseman, Brandon Phillips, rubbing the now hairless head of Marty Brennaman.

Photo courtesy of Michael E Anderson, Cincinnati Reds PR (@MANderson_PR)

That’s not quite the end of the story.  Thanks to one of my Reds twitter buddies, Kasey Beckham,I learned that the blue shirt Brennaman is wearing that says “I’m Still Me” is to raise awareness for all of the kids who have lost their hair during cancer treatment.  He was also joined by three of the most adorable youngsters who are fighting this awful disease with an amazing display of courage and dignity.   You can see the entire event here, courtesy of the Cincinnati Reds and Major League Baseball Advanced Media.  I challenge anybody to watch the last two minutes of this video and not shed a bucket of tears.  I don’t think it can be done.

I still don’t like when Marty Brennaman picks on my favorite team, but I will never be able to look at him in quite the same way.  Instead of a wise cracking homer jerk, we have seen the real person under that facade, and it is a very special person indeed.  I was wrong, Marty Brennaman is a pretty good human being after all.   And I have just given him a standing ovation.   I think you should as well.

Bravo, Marty.  Well done.    We can resume the feud tomorrow or the next day, but for right now, all I can think of are those three adorable kids and how generous the Reds fans and corporate sponsors were.   A very good day for all of baseball.

If you would like to know more about the “I’m Still Me” awareness program, please visit The Dragonfly Foundation website.   Donations can be made online.   If you are looking for something with more of a Cardinals connection, The Baby Reesa Foundation is just getting started, but might be a good choice.

Jumping on the Peter Bourjos Bandwagon

The last days leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline may be the most exciting time in the entire baseball season.   In the coming days, fates of several franchises will be determined as buyers and sellers each try to make that one deal to put them over the top now, or set themselves up for success for years to come.   And then there’s always the Cubs.

Peter Bourjos

While we shouldn’t overreact to a rumor, especially one circulating on Twitter, there is one floating around that just might be too good to pass up.  The Los Angeles Angels are rumored to be asking about left handed reliever, Marc Rzepczynski. The carrot being dangled is outfielder Peter Bourjos.  If there is any truth to this, John Mozeliak should do as the fourth Montrose album suggests, and Jump on It.

Taking Rzepczynski out of the picture for a moment, let’s look at what it would mean to add a player like Peter Bourjos to the Cardinals roster.   Before doing that, let’s take a look at where the 2012 Cardinals are vulnerable.

Hitting with Runners in Scoring Position

Yeah, this gets a giant “Duh” from every Cardinals fan on the planet.   Instead of shaking our heads and assembling the canonical list of every non-clutch player on the roster, why don’t we look at why this is happening.

It is not necessarily a problem of getting runners into scoring position.   The Cardinals are second in team batting average (just behind the Texas Rangers) and first in on base percentage (OBP).   They are sixth in slugging.   We are getting somewhere ….. continue with that thought.

The Cardinals are 10th in doubles, 8th in triples (that actually surprises me) and 12th in home runs.   You mean, the Cardinals are a singles hitting ballclub ?   Yep, and therein lie some of the difficulties in scoring runs.   It almost seems like it is 1979 all over again.

That 1979 ballclub was absolutely loaded with talent, but the pieces just didn’t fit well together.  There were big time players at nearly every position, but it took them 3 hits to score a run.   They were very good at getting two of those three hits.   Yes, I am still talking about the 1979 Cardinals (Garry Templeton, Keith Hernandez, Ted Simmons).

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it.

Earlier in the season, the Cardinals seemed to be scoring runs at will.   They were also aggressive on the bases – occasionally a bit too aggressive, but that might have been the key to their success.  Good base running not only reduces the number of hits it takes to score a run, it puts continual pressure on the pitching and defense (both infield and outfield).  Those stresses add up over the course of the innings of a game as well as games of a series.

I don’t think it is a coincidence that once the Cardinals became passive on the bases, the team began struggling with run production.  The Cardinals became somewhat predictable, and teams started taking advantage of the station-to-station approach.

How did the Cardinals solve the 1979 problem ?   Lonnie Smith.  OK, it was a lot more than just Smith, but he became the archetype of the new Cardinal player.   He could hit with a little power, but was mainly a high average .800 OPS type of hitter.   He could also turn a single into a double by stealing second base.   His defense was a bit suspect, but that was offset by the establishment of an insanely high operational tempo at the top of the batting order.  Whitey Herzog would follow the acquisition of Smith with David Green and a minor league deal for a kid named McGee.   They would also draft players like Lance Johnson, Andy van Slyle, Vince Coleman and Ray Lankford.

Where is that type of player on current roster ?   No, go ahead.  I’ll wait.  I have plenty of time.   No, not Rafael Furcal.   OK, in an alternate reality where he’s not a MLB bust, Tyler Greene.  Keep trying.   Couldn’t come up with one ?  Don’t worry, there isn’t one.

That player does not exist on the current 25 man active roster.   The closest thing is Adron Chambers, who is currently exiled in Memphis in favor of too many redundant left handed hitting yawningly average middle infielders and perhaps one too many range challenged first baseman.  Even Shane Robinson would be a step in the right direction, albeit a teeny tiny one.

You know who could be that kind of player ?   Duh.

No, Really – Chicks Don’t Dig the Long Ball

In the last week, the Cardinals have had two exceptional innings.   In a genuine delight of a game (more in that later), the Cardinals tied a franchise record by scoring 12 runs in an inning.   That offensive outburst also tied a MLB record for seven doubles in an inning.   The amazing thing about that inning – no home runs.  It was like an afternoon with Casey Kasem – the hits just kept coming.

The same thing happened a few games later, and against one of the better pitchers in the National League, Clayton Kershaw.   A little bit of wildness and perhaps a tighter strike zone than Kershaw would have liked also contributed, but the Cardinals plated six runners in one inning, eight in total.   The offensive outburst started with an 0-2 single by Daniel Descalso, the 8th place hitter.   30 minutes and two innings later, the Cardinals put a snowman on the scoreboard and the series was tied at one game each.

The key to those two innings – taking what pitchers were giving the Cardinals hitters.  No big yacking swings for the fences.   No heroes.   Just put the ball in play and let the fates of BABIP do their thing.    And they did.   And Clayton Kershaw was sent to an early shower (and with all that sweat, it looks like he really needed it).

Home runs are great fun.   They really are.   But you can’t count on them to win games, and certainly not championships.   And yes, I am talking about Game Six of the 2011 World Series.   Two of the key hits were home runs, but if you look back at that game, it was a routine Lance Berkman single – a piece of exquisite veteran hitting that set up the exciting final hit by David Freese.   Even Freese’s triple was an example of going with the pitch.   If he tries to pull that one, Ron Washington would still be dancing in the Cardinals dugout.

Let’s take a look back at a fairly recent Cardinal player, just selected stats at first.   You will probably not be able to tell who it is, just from this data.  That’s part of the fun.

Player A:

Year	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	K
1	636	170	20	1	40	.267	115
2	600	139	13	0	29	.232	98
3	623	180	14	3	43	.289	126
4	616	160	20	3	38	.260	111

Player B:

Year	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	K
1	502	136	26	12	43	.271	124
2	148	33	7	3	19	.223	37

Player B is obviously Peter Bourjos and his second year stats are from the 2012 season where his role has been reduced to a bench player, thanks to the emergence of a pair of young stars: Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout.

But who is Player A.   Let me replace one column and you will know exactly who he is.
Player A:

Year	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	SB
1	636	170	20	1	40	.267	110
2	600	139	13	0	29	.232	107
3	623	160	14	3	43	.289	109
4	616	180	20	3	38	.260	81

That’s right.  Player A is Vince Coleman.

While we remember him as an exciting player that could bring a major league battery to tears, if you exclude his stolen base totals, his offensive production was …… well, pretty offensive.   He didn’t hit for high average, didn’t take a lot of walks, and struck out A LOT.  But when he did get on base, his singles were like extra base hits.  A stolen base, a sac bunt and a sac fly produces a run.  That was something that Ozzie Smith, Tommy Herr and Jack Clark perfected as Whitey Herzog’s team scored early and often.   They had to because the rest of the lineup lacked any real fire power.

Vince Coleman is certainly an extreme corner case, and I’m not suggesting that Peter Bourjos can be exactly that type of player, but he could be the perfect post-PED era catalyst to put at the top of the batting order.  He won’t steal as many bases as Coleman, but he will also hit for more power.   In a post-PED world, teams need more players like Bourjos and Oscar Taveras and fewer like Brett Wallace/Matt Adams/Zack Cox.   You still need the power hitters, but be smarter with them and don’t allow them to clog up key defensive positions, such as the middle of the field.

Defense Wins Championships

Once again, the Cardinals front office have assembled something of a softball type roster, not at the complete sacrifice of defense, but certainly favoring offense over defense.   If you can step away from being a fan for one second and evaluate the Cardinals outfield, it is yawningly average at best.

OK, sure.   Matt Holliday has worked hard on his defense.   That might be true, and he has made several good plays this year.  His arm also looks a bit better than I remember in the past.   On the other hand, he still looks like the Thing from the Fantastic Four when running into the corner to retrieve a baseball.  Adding a bit of humor, Holliday still looks like he’s being attacked by bees when making a routine catch (that reference is courtesy of Dennis over at Pitcher’s Hit 8th – you do read them regularly, right ?).

Jon Jay has also improved his defense since the Colby Rasmus trade.   He seems to be in a better position to make plays, and he is certainly getting good jumps when a ball is hit in his direction.  But one area where he continues to struggle is with throwing.   When was the last time you saw a Cardinal outfielder do this.   I’ll bet you watched that more than once, didn’t you ?  I know I did.   Yeah, the last time we saw a throw like that was when that same guy wore a Cardinals uniform.  You know, if the Bourjos deal doesn’t work out ….. nah, that would never happen.

Maybe Peter Bourjos isn’t exactly Rick Ankiel,  but he is one of the best young defensive outfielders in the game today, and something the Cardinals do not have – a legitimate center fielder.   As you can see on this play, he hustles to the ball and makes the proper throw resulting in an out instead of another run scoring opportunity for the other team.   In a close game, runs you prevent can be just as important as the ones you score – something Cardinals fans don’t say because that just isn’t a part of their game at the moment.    It might also be one of the reasons the Cardinals have a poor record in close games.

To Next Year ….. and Beyond

More than anything else, a deal to acquire a player like Peter Bourjos signals a change in direction by the front office, and frankly, it is one that should have already happened.   It means that the Cardinals are now interested in multi-dimensional players instead of range limited power hitters.   Sure, it’s nice to have a lot of power in your lineup, but too much of it, especially when it comes at the expense of defense, is not a good thing.   If we learned anything from last season, it should have been that.

Let’s look ahead just a couple of years and play a what if.   Right now, the outfield is made up of a power hitter (Holliday), a good but not great corner outfielder in center (Jon Jay) and a veteran power hitter entering his end of career decline (Carlos Beltran).    In a couple of years, it might look like Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos and Oscar Traveras.   It has been a couple of decades since the Cardinals fielded outfield with that much run creation as well as run prevention.   If interest in Bourjos signals a change in this direction, damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead.

Now we are at the sticky part of the deal, what do you have to give up to get such a talent.  It was former Cardinals General Manager, Bing Devine, that believed you have to give up good talent to get good talent, and that might be what is required to make this happen.   That good talent surrendered might have to be Marc Rzepczynski, that that would be a shame.   Zep has proven himself to Cardinals fans on the biggest stage imaginable, so we know what he can do.  That’s the reason the Angels are interested in him – they are no fools.   The tough part is that the Cardinals are not exactly knee deep in quality lefties, and certainly none with the experience of Rzepczynski.   Brian Fuentes is a low risk tryout that we hope will come in and be the Arthur Rhodes of 2012.  Properly managed, he might actually be that, or at least close enough for one of the playoff spots.   Barret Browning has been a most pleasant surprise, but we don’t know how he will hold up during the long month of August in a divisional race.

The tripping point for me is that Bourjos could be an every day impact player, especially if he returns to his 2011 level.   If the Cardinals rotation can keep the bullpen innings down, and a gold glove type center fielder can go a long way to making that possible, the Cardinals might just be able to make a run at the Reds and Pirates without Rzepczynski.

Bottom line, if John Mozeliak can make this deal without giving up Trevor Rosenthal, John Gast, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez or Shelby Miller, he should do it in a heartbeat.   And then follow that up with more post-PED type of multi-tool players (and another lefty for the bullpen).

This is all speculation, and should just be treated as such.   I fully expect some other team to offer far more than the Cardinals, but if it does happen, there is reason to be just as excited about this deal as the one this time last year.

Cardinals Minor League Guide for the All Star Break

The All Star Game break.  Four days without meaningful baseball.  Over those four days, we can watch an ESPN Tribute to the PED era and hear more calls of “back, back, back” than in the career of a chiropractor (the Home Run Derby).   Instead, I’d rather watch Mark Scott’s series from the 1960 where the players and their egos were not nearly as inflated as they are today.

What is a Cardinals baseball fan to do with these next four days ?   Why not check out some of the action in the minor leagues.  While AAA takes the same break as the majors, there will be games throughout the remainder of the Cardinals farm system.

Note: All times referenced are in central daylight (CDT).

Monday – July 9

There is a fairly full schedule of games to choose from on Monday.  A special treat comes from Midland, who is a participant in MiLB.TV, so the Springfield game is available for those who have a subscription.  Seth Maness (5-1 2.12 ERA with SGF, 8-2 2.14 ERA overall) is the scheduled starter and he is having an amazing season, so that is a double bonus.

Another interesting choice will be Billy Hamilton’s AA debut with the Pensicola Blue Wahoos (Reds).  They will be playing the Mobile BayBears (Diamondbacks) and the game starts at 7pm.  Both Gameday audio and MiLB.tv video will be available for this one.

Level	Teams	Start Time	Audio	Video
AA	Springfield at Midland	6:30pm	Jock 98.7	MiLB.TV
A+	Charlotte at Palm Beach	5:35pm	Gameday	None
A	Clinton at Quad Cities	7:00pm	Gameday	None
RK	Lowell at Batavia	6:05pm	WCAP	None

Tuesday – July 10

There is just one game in the Cardinals system: Springfield at Midland.  Most of you will be watching the All Star Game, but if you get bored and want to check in on the baby birds, you can catch Springfield one more time.

Level	Teams	Start Time	Audio	Video
AA	Springfield at Midland	6:30pm	Jock 98.7	MiLB.TV

Wednesday – July 11

Springfield has a travel day, but there is plenty of action in the lower levels of the farm system as well as the AAA All Star Game.   Memphis will be sending just one player this year, Brandon Dickson.  Dickson will be taking the place of Barret Browning, who was just recently been called up to St. Louis.  Attending the game with Dickson will be pitching coach, Blaise Ilsley.

Level	Teams	Start Time	Audio	Video
AAA	PCL All Stars at IL All Stars	6:00pm	WHBQ	MLB
A+	Palm Beach at Daytona	6:05pm	Gameday	None
A	Quad Cities at Lansing	6:05pm	None	None
RK	Batavia at Hudson Valley	6:05pm	WCAP	None

Thursday – July 12

A complete slate of games await the Cardinals fan on the last day before the big club starts its second half in Cincinnati.   Lots of good choices, although those with MiLB subscriptions will certainly lean towards Memphis at Round Rock.  Even if you don’t have one, I would highly recommend listening to the Memphis audio broadcast, if for no other reason than to enjoy the old school broadcasting technique of Steve Selby – one of the best in the league.

Level	Teams	Start Time	Audio	Video
AAA	Memphis at Round Rock	7:05pm	WHBQ	MiLB.TV
AA	NW Ark at Springfield	7:08pm	Jock 98.7	None
A+	Palm Beach at Daytona	6:05pm	Gameday	None
A	Quad Cities at Lansing	6:05pm	None	None
RK	Batavia at Hudson Valley	6:05pm	WCAP	None

Fans of other teams shouldn’t feel obligated to watch or listen to the baby birds, although we do appreciate it when they do.  Instead, check out the web pages of your favorite  team’s minor league affiliates and see what audio or video is available.  Audio from most minor league games is available for free, courtesy of MiLB.com.  You can find links for all minor league teams here.   If you have a MiLB.TV subscription, a monster value add-on to your MLB.tv season pass, you can find all of the available feeds  here.

Lee Smith and the Maikel Cleto Upside

This originally started out as another Player A vs Player B piece, but thought I might go a different route and get right to the point.  Maikel Cleto reminds me a lot of a young Lee Smith.

Calm down.  I’m not talking about the Hall of Fame hopeful who terrorized hitters in both leagues for more than a decade (Smith had a brilliant 18 year career).  At the same time, there is something eerily similar about the two, if you will just take the time to look.   It starts in 1975.

Here are some snippets from Smith and Cleto’s minor league stats, courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Here is one of the two ….

Age	Level	ERA	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
19	A	4.29	9.1	5.9	5.7	0.96
20	AA	5.98	9.3	7.4	4.1	0.55
21	AA	4.93	10.6	7.4	4.0	0.54
22	AAA	3.79	7.0	5.6	6.3	1.13

And here’s the other.

Age	Level	ERA	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
19	A	4.25	9.3	2.3	5.4	2.28
20	A	5.33	12.4	3.9	8.5	2.18
21	A+	6.16	11.0	3.9	7.3	1.89
22	AAA	4.29	7.2	5.4	8.3	1.53

Neither of these really look like the beginnings of a long and distinguished career, do they ?  Yet, one of them is, and the other could be.    Of the two, the second set is Lee Smith, right  ? Maybe more to the point, we all know of Maikel Cleto’s control problems, so he has to be the first one.

A clue.  No.

Eerily similarity number 1: Both pitchers began their careers as starters.  Cleto was moved around much more often than Smith, but in both cases, the bulk of the data comes from their time in the minor leagues where they struggled as starters.

For Smith, the turning point in his career happened in 1979 while he was pitching for the Midland Cubs, the AA affiliate of the Chicago Cubs.  They moved the big right hander into the bullpen, where he could turn into a max effort pitcher, hopefully capitalizing on that 90+ mph fastball.

A similar move was made in Memphis this year, and the results are even more striking than with Smith.

Age	Level	ERA	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
23	AAA	3.94	6.9	2.5	11.5	4.56

Any questions why Cleto is with the big club right now ?  Cleto’s AAA numbers are from 27 appearances and 32 innings, so represent about half of a season.   In other words, not enough to draw a complete picture of his progress, but enough that they can’t be ignored.

Eerily similarity number 2: They could be twins.   Right down to the last detail.

Lee Smith is listed at 6ft 5in and 220 lb where Cleto is 6ft 3in and 235 lb.  They both are imposing figures when standing on the mound, especially when the hitter knows that they can unleash violent heat with every pitch.

Lee “The Big Man” Smith

Maikel Cleto throwing a changeup

It is more than just body type, and this was where Cleto first made me think of Smith.  Both pitchers have big hands.  The baseball looks small when tucked away in those giant mitts.  For Smith, that physical feature turned out to be the key to his success.   Where a lot of pitchers in his era were following Bruce Sutter and learning the split fingered fastball, Smith took advantage of his size and went completely old school and learned the forkball.   Yes, the Roy Face, jam the ball way down between your first two fingers and throw it like a fastball.   That decision not only gave Lee Smith a world class out pitch, but it probably prevented the kind of elbow troubles that plagued other pitchers of his era.   If Cleto can develop anything close to Smith’s second pitch, he could be equally as devastating on the mound.

There are more little parts to this physical similarity.   It always seemed as if you had just awakened Lee Smith, and he lumbered into the game as if he was sleepwalking.   It is not as pronounced, but Cleto also has a bit of that strolling into the game persona.

Once on the mound, Lee Smith looked somewhere between bored and completely fatigued.  This was all part of an act of deception as his minimalistic windup or stretch motion gave the hitter little in which to get their timing down.   A deep breath, just an essance of a motion, and then the ball is on you, either high heat (often described as a rising fastball) or the nasty off speed tumbler of the forkball.

With Cleto, the only difference is pitch selection.  Cleto throws with higher velocity, but Lee Smith had a better slider at this point in his career.  It should be noted that Cleto’s secondary pitches are significantly better this year, perhaps accounting for improvement in both his control and hits allowed.

Is the future bright enough – should I wear shades ?

Perhaps.

For Smith, the start to his major league career didn’t exactly signal future major league save leader.  Smith first saw action in the major leagues as a September callup in 1980.  He would see quite a bit of activity as a setup man to Bruce Sutter.  When Sutter left the Cubs for the Cardinals, the northsiders searched for their next closer, and it would take the almost two seasons to settle in on Smith for the role.

In his first three seasons as closer, Smith was used in the same way that the Cubs used his predecessor, Bruce Sutter.   He would come into the game in the middle of an inning, generally with runners on base.  He was expected to pitch out of the jam *AND* finish the game.  As a result, he totaled over 100 innings for each of those three years.

After that, the role of the closer started changing, albeit rather slowly.   By the end of his time in Chicago, he was down to about 1 1/2 innings per appearance, and that ratio would drop even more in Boston and St. Louis.  Under Joe Torre, Smith became the archetype of what we see today – the 9th inning guy when you have a lead.    As a result, his save totals jumped through the roof.  Smith would record 40 or more saves  for three consecutive seasons while in St. Louis (1991 – 1993) and lead the league again in 1994 with Baltimore (33).

When the Big Man finally hung up his glove and spikes after 18 seasons, his career numbers are impressive.   He posted a career ERA of 3.03 (good for the era) with 475 saves (a major league record).  He would average just under one strikeout per inning and a nice K/BB ratio over 2.5.  Not too shabby for a pitcher that had some serious control issues.

Whether any of this applies to Maikel Cleto remains to be seen.   At this point, all we know is they both share a similar path to the big leagues.  Perhaps we are watching the development of the league’s next elite closer, or something entirely different.  The next few years should be very interesting.

Fixing the All Star Game

Raise your hand if you think the All Star Game, including the selection process, is just fine the way it is.

Put down that arm, you are an idiot.   Oh, I’m sorry, I didn’t realize you were trying to start the wave.  In that case, put down those arms, you are still an idiot.

Thanks to a couple of recent missteps, the commissioners office has implemented some new measures for the mid-summer classic, in the hopes that it would increase revenue improve the quality of the game.  As has happened so many times in politics, an overreaction to a single isolated incident has led to volumes of legislation that has been more harmful than the original problem.

Fixing  the All Star Game troubles should be such a simple task.  Most of it just requires undoing the last decade of “enhancements”.

1.  There is no fair in baseball

This is especially if you were watching the sixth inning of Johan Santana’s no hitter earlier in the year.  A quick poke at a controversial call that means nothing in the grand scheme of things aside, the search for fairness in baseball is a fools errand, so why even try.   In some respects, we love the differences in the ballpark dimensions and layouts.  The two leagues play under different sets of rules, which itself is a lunacy I don’t understand, but fans of each league hang on to those rules as “the one true baseball”.

The closest thing you can come to fair is equal number of opportunities.  <Insert personal commentary on the one game playoff>.  As for the All Star Game, alternating its location between a National League and American League city is perfect, and that should be the end of it.  The ASG has largely followed that pattern, except for a few times in which there were two All Star Games (one hosted by each league) in a season or there was some sort of special anniversary for the host city.

Just because it is simple doesn’t mean it isn’t working.  It is.   Or rather, it was.

2. Turn the All Star voting back to the fans that attend games.

Now is when I get to turn this article into something I’m more comfortable with

Back in 1957, the fans selected a rather unusual starting lineup for the National League All Stars.   It looked like this.

• 1B – Stan Musial (Cardinals)
• 2B – Johnny Temple (Reds)
• SS – Roy McMillan (Reds)
• 3B – Don Hoak (Reds)
• LF – Frank Robinson (Reds)
• CF – Gus Bell (Reds)
• RF – Wally Post (Reds)
• C – Ed Baily (Reds)

At first glance something seems very strange about this.  Remember that the National League only had eight teams at the time: Brooklyn, New York, Chicago, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and St. Louis.  You should also know that the Reds had been playing very good baseball since early May, and were 8 games over .500 at the break.  They were also just 3 games behind the Cardinals in the standings.  Perhaps a disproportionate number of Reds being voted in might not be unreasonable under those circumstances.

Then you start looking for names Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Gil Hodges and fail to see any of them.  The only non-Reds player was Stan Musial at first base.  The Reds first baseman at the time ?  George Crowe, who was filling in for an injured Ted Kluszewski.  Had Kluz been healthy, perhaps it would have been a complete Reds lineup.

The league office conducted an investigation and found out that over half of the ballots came from Cincinnati.   Then they found the source of most of these ballots – the Cincinnati Enquirer.  The newspaper had distributed a pre-marked ballot with the Weekend editions of the paper in the hopes that fans would send them in.  There are also stories of business refusing to serve customers until they voted.   Before you open your mouth in outrage, how is this any different from what is going on right now in the final spot voting ?  And no, David Freese is not going to give you a pony if you vote for him.

Ford C. Frick (courtesy of Wikipedia)

Ford Frick, the commissioner of baseball, intervened and made some lineup changes.   The obvious place to start was in the outfield, with Gus Bell and Wally Post.   They were replaced by Henry Aaron (Braves) and Willie Mays (Giants).  Gus Bell was having a good season, so he was kept on the roster as a reserve.  Post was not.   Frick may have wanted to make more changes, but the remaining Reds selections were not that unreasonable, so were allowed to stand.

Frick made one other change.   He took away the fan voting until the league office could figure out some way of making the process fair (there’s that word again).   All Star voting would now be done by players, manager and coaches, and that lasted until the 1970 All Star Game.   The solution was so obvious, it shouldn’t have taken more than a decade, but with several new expansion teams, it was the perfect time to return part of the voting to the fans.   The solution ?  An equal number of ballots for each team, to be passed out at each ballpark during home games.

As the Guinness brothers say in their commercials, Brilliant!  Quite often, the simplest solutions are the best solutions.   This has worked fairly well, until the Internet came along.

Mr. Selig, tear down that web page.   Go back to what has worked reasonably well for three decades.  Pass out the same number of ballots for each team and distribute them to the fans who attend games.  Keeping the All Star Voting in the hands of the fan is still an important objective.  Perhaps the fan they should pay attention to is the one going through the turnstile, and not sitting in front of a keyboard and mouse.

3. The All Star Game is an Exhibition Game

Perhaps the biggest mistake that current commissioner, Bud Selig, has made is turning what was once an exhibition game into something that has a very real impact to the game – determining home field advantage in the World Series.   This is an idea you would expect from some grade schoolers who are missing a couple of players for a neighborhood game who agree that since there is no third baseman, any ball hit to the left doesn’t count.

We all know why this rule was enacted – the 2002 All Star Game.   Ahhh, yes.  We remember that game.  Full of fail, it was.   Thanks to an Omar Vizquel triple in the eighth inning, the game went into extra innings.  The excuse for the unfortunate end to the game was that both teams had run out of players, but that’s not quite accurate.  The real reason is that nobody wanted to extend the pitchers that were currently in the game.  Both Vincente Padilla (Phillies)  and Freddie Garcia (Mariners) had pitched for two innings.  Before the National League batted in the 11th, a compromise was reached that if the game remained tied (the NL not scoring), it would end as a tie.    It did.

Oh, how quickly we forget baseball history.   In 1967, the All Star Game also went into extra innings.   There was no talk of ending in a tie.  Jim “Catfish” Hunter (Athletics) pitched five innings of relief.  His sole mistake was to Tony Perez, who gave the NL the win with a solo home run.

With those enormous rosters, how can a manager run out of players in an 11 inning game ?   Oh, that’s right, it is supposed to be an EXHIBITION GAME.  Since it is an EXHIBITION GAME, you want to make sure that all of the popular players get a chance to play and be seen by their fans.  That forces managers to make some ridiculous substitutions.   That is perfectly fine because it should be AN EXHIBITION GAME.

With one swipe of a pen and an overreaction to a one poor decision, Selig has turned what used to be a fun game played by the most popular players into a badly morphed interleague game that has significant consequences.   Now, managers have to choose players to fill out a tactically sound roster instead of rewarding other players that are flying under the radar (taking Michael Bourn instead of Brandon Phillips or Matt Holliday).

The most important thing for the commissioner to do right now is return the All Star Game to its exhibition status, thereby undoing the biggest mistake that he has made as commissioner.   That would return the home field advantage for the World Series back to an alternating AL/NL city, and balance would be restored in the force.

4. Buster Posey is more popular than Yadier Molina

I thought that Tony La Russa’s tendency to remove Matt Holliday in a late inning double switch caused a twitterstorm.   That was nothing compared to what got unleashed on the Internet when it was learned that Buster Posey was voted in as the starting catcher for the National League.   There were some tweets that would make a sailor blush.  Goodness.

pssst:  See #3 above.

Carlos Ruiz and his 172 OPS+

The All Star Game is supposed to be an exhibition game.   Once the voting privilege was returned to the fans in 1970, it became a popularity contest.  Period.   As it should be.  Before Cardinals fans rare up on their hind legs, wait…. people have only two legs ….. Let’s try that again.  Before Cardinals fans yell foul (like a certain umpire that we will not name), it should be pointed out that Carlos Ruiz of the Phillies is rocking a rather pre-Anaheim-Pujolsian  .357 / .419 / .698 with 13 homers, 46 RBIs, a 38% caught stealing rate and a .995 fielding percentage.  So maybe Buster Posey shouldn’t be the starter, but it is not exactly like Yadier Molina is the obvi0us alternative.

Fans of every team (except the 2012 Texas Rangers, goodness) complain that Player A or B were left off the roster, and that’s not fair (see #1 above).  It happens every year.   In 1975, Ted Simmons (.324 / .399 / .510) was left off the roster in favor of Johnny Bench, Manny Sanguillen and Gary Carter.  That was Gary Carter’s rookie year and his selection would be on the level of Bryce Harper or Mike Troutth is year.  He was also the sole selection from the Montreal Expos, which gave him the nod over Simmons.   That was not fair to Simmons.   See #1 above.   It happens.

There are quite a few things that are working in Buster Posey’s favor

• Posey is the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year (name recognition)
• He plays in San Francisco (regional population of 7.6 Million)
• San Francisco is the sixth largest TV market
• The San Francisco Giants are pioneers in using social media technologies
• Fans in Cincinnati and Milwaukee are not voting for Yadier Molina, ever

Posey is popular.   As is Joe “Well Played” Mauer in the American League.   There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

5. Let’s Vote the Final ASG Roster Spot off the Island

Since when did baseball follow the lead of Survivor, American Idol, Big Brother or any reality TV show ?  Seriously – I’m supposed to text my vote to <blah><blah><blah>.    Seriously ?   For three hours on July 5, the twitter social media network turned into a complete content free zone as fans enthusiastically tweeted nonsense, just so they could include a #FreesePlease or #PetPeavy hashtag and have it count as a vote.   OK, it was really #TakeJake, but #PetPeavy is a lot more consistent with the theme of this article.

Let’s go back to that 2002 All Star Game, shall we ?   That was the first one where fans got to vote for not just the starters, but also the final roster spot.   That ASG was just full of fail, wasn’t it ?

We get the idea – keep fans involved until the final second.  Keep them going to the website to vote, thus sending the page and click counts through the roof, increasing advertising revenues.    Now we can send SMS messages and for the first time, the MLB is counting twitter hashtags.   For those with fixed SMS or data plans, the carriers have to love that idea.

If we are going to fix this problem, let’s not stop with just last roster spot – why not take on the entire Internet voting process.

What is driving these recent ideas is noble  and we should be appreciative of the efforts to engage all fans, especially those that are not fortunate enough to attend baseball games.   That said, the implementation is not just flawed, it is absurd.   Since when does online voting become more important than all of those paying customers marking the red ballots with their #2 pencils (also passed out at the ballpark) ?   If you want to bring in the remote Internet fan, why not tie the voting to their MLB.tv account.   One vote per game, period.  Not 25, or worse, 25 by as many fake gmail, hotspot or yahoo mail addresses I decide to create.   Not only that, you also have to be logged into your MLB.tv account and ACTUALLY WATCHING a game.  Then you can vote.   If you can give me synchronized audio from five sources, multiple game feeds, a live look for a game that I’m actually attending,  you have the programming skills to give me a pop-up widget that looks like the ballot passed out in the ballpark.

As far as I can see, the only downside to this is that the MLB can’t claim a new record vote getter each year.

6. Attendance is Voluntary

If a player that is selected to play in the All Star Game would rather stay at home and get the three days off, let him.   If he (or perhaps in the future, she) doesn’t want to play, quite frankly, I don’t want to see them.   This is an exhibition game for the fans, to recognize the most popular players in the sport.  If that is not enough of an incentive for that player, fine.   But don’t be surprised if your popularity starts declining, and the invitations to future games go away.

My first thought was that the league could institute a fine for no-shows, but the newly signed collective bargaining agreement would have to be amended  before anything like that could be considered.  Even if that did happen, is this really a problem ?   No.  In that case, there’s nothing more to see.  Move along.

7. Replace the Home Run Derby with a real Futures Game

Nothing quite takes us back to the glory days of the Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) era as much as watching artificially endowed human beings hitting baseballs into the parking structure adjacent to the ballpark in which the event was being held.

That’s right, I stick my tongue out at the thought of it too.   Sure, let’s have a three hour extravaganza focused on one of the least important parts of the game.

psst: chicks don’t really dig the long ball, you morons.

Instead, why not take a page from the current minor league prospects futures game and hold a rookie game, perhaps expanding it to include a second or third year player.  I know that I had a hard time with Mike Trout’s invitation as well as Bryce Harper’s consideration for the final roster spot, so this is a potential solution.  What an exciting game this should be, showing off the younger talent that is already in the league, instead of prospects that might never make it (Francisco Samuel, anybody?).  It should still follow the NL/AL divison, and not the ridiculous US against the World thing that seems so popular these days.   Let’s vote that one  off the island too.

None of this is difficult.  All it takes is a bit of understanding and a couple of deep breaths on the part of the fan – and the league undoing most of what it has done.  The ball is in your court, Mr. Commissioner.

Kyle Lohse – Quietly Getting it Done

On July 2, 2012, a large crowd at Busch Stadium applauded enthusiastically and gave Kyle Lohse a much deserved standing ovation as manager, Mike Matheny, took him out of the game in the eighth inning.   His line on the evening: 7 1/3 IP, 9 hits (one home run), 2 runs (both earned), 2 walks, 5 strikeouts.   Of the 105 pitches, 70 were for strikes.

So, why the ovation ?

Perhaps because he deserved it, and fans are finally starting to understand how well he has pitched for the Cardinals.   Do you know the last pitcher to go as deep in a game ?  Kyle Lohse in his previous start (7 1/3 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts).   In the 11 games since Jake Westbrook threw a brilliant complete game in Detroit, only 4 times has a starter pitched seven innings: Adam Wainwright in Kansas City on June 23, and the last three starts by ….. wait for it ……  Kyle Lohse.

But Lohse is in a contract year, you say ?   That is true.   Let’s think about that for a moment.   As we do, perhaps a bit of creative mathematics might help us reach a conclusion that might just set our hair on fire.  Some of you might not believe what you are about to read.

Hypothesis: When healthy, Kyle Lohse has been one of the Cardinals best starters.

Proof:

First we have to determine the boundaries of his healthy period.  Clearly, we know the start date – May 23, 2009.   To be more specific, it was in the bottom of the eighth inning when Ron Mahay threw inside on a bunt attempt and hit Lohse in his right forearm.  Lohse stayed in the game to run the bases, but did not return to pitch the final inning.  He would skip his next start, and only go two innings against the Reds on June 3.  Lohse would then go on the disabled list and miss more than a month.

Upon his return, the big right-hander would struggle through the remainder of 2009.   He averaged less than 5 innings per start, and his ERA over the period ballooned to 5.47.

Things didn’t improve in 2010.  His record for the first two months of the season is nearly the same as after returning from the disabled list in 2009.  An early exit from a game in late May prompted another visit to the medical specialists, and this time it was learned that Lohse indeed had an injury and it would require surgery to correct.  At the time, there was some skepticism of whether this injury was real, as it had never been seen on a pitcher.

Lohse went through with the surgery and would miss all of June and July as well as half of August.  Since this was the first case in baseball, there was no timetable for his return.   Judging from his performance in August and September, perhaps he should have sat out the remainder of the season.  That is good information for the next pitcher that Ron Mahay decides to hit on the forearm.

Since his 2011 season started off much like 2008, I think we know where the end point of non-health needs to be placed.

This gives us a healthy timespan of the entire 2008 season, the first two months of 2009, 2011 and so far this season.   Got it ?   Good, because this is about to become a lot more complicated.

Let’s take a look at how some of the other Cardinals starters did over that period.

Player	Wins	Losses	IP	ERA
Chris Carpenter	13	10	275 2/3	3.07
Adam Wainwright	21	13	286 2/3	3.77
Jaime Garcia	21	14	326 1/3	3.50
Kyle Lohse	41	19	552	3.47

Wait, just a sec, you say ?   You can’t just arbitrarily go in and pick out a tiny interval which shows one player in the best possible light, even if that sample size is more than two seasons.  Sure I can.  Everybody screaming that Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez should be released or traded is doing the exact same thing.  Perhaps to a lesser extent, this applies to those suggesting that Lance Lynn needs to go back to the bullpen.

At the same time, there are a couple of real problems with the data.   The healthy Lohse period excludes some of the best work from both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.  And not a little bit either, as both were among the leaders in Cy Young Award voting (and Carpenter should have won in ’09 and Wainwright in ’10).  Yet, we cannot ignore the fact that over the period in which Lohse was healthy, he was the best pitcher on the staff, and by quite a significant margin.

So let’s play with these number a little bit, and skew them so that every pitcher looks as good as possible.

Adam Wainwright missed all of 2011, so let’s add in his Cy Young worthy performance from 2010 in place of his missing 2011.  If you are a statistician, skip to the next section as this is really poor math, but it is helping me get to my conclusion.

Chris Carpenter is a bit more difficult.  Since he has missed all of 2012, we need to find something to buff up his numbers.  Since we added Adam Wainwright’s CYA worthy season as filler, why not do the same with Carpenter ?   OK, lets add in the remainder of Carpenter’s remarkable 2009 season instead of just the first two months.

Player	Wins	Losses	IP	ERA
Chris Carpenter	28	14	445 1/3	2.87
Adam Wainwright	41	24	517	3.17
Jaime Garcia	21	14	326 1/3	3.50
Kyle Lohse	41	19	552	3.47

Really bad statistical analysis aside, even when you cherry pick the best of the data, Kyle Lohse’s numbers stack up far better than you might have thought.

What if we just look at everything, no filters, no extrapolations. Just the raw data, and let things fall where they will.  Since 2008, here is how the top Cardinals starters have done.

Player	Wins	Losses	IP	ERA
Chris Carpenter	44	23	680 1/3	2.99
Adam Wainwright	56	30	692	2.96
Jaime Garcia	30	20	440 1/3	3.45
Kyle Lohse	47	34	707 1/3	4.05

Even when you throw in almost a full season of pitching poorly due to injury, Kyle Lohse is the innings leader and trails just Adam Wainwright in wins.   The ERA could be a bit lower, and was kicked up by half a run thanks to his injury, but +13 in wins should not be ignored.  Also bear in mind that the data includes three CYA worthy efforts from a pair of elite pitchers in the National League.

Why am I bringing up all of this now, other than being one of the few Kyle Lohse fans in 2009 and 2010 ?

The Cardinals have an interesting decision to make this off-season.  Lohse will turn 34 in October and probably has one or two good years left in that right arm.  As they did with Jake Westbrook last year, don’t be surprised if the Cardinals resign Lohse to a reasonable 2 year contract, something close to what he is earning now ($10M/yr).  From the looks of this data, he has earned it.

The Unofficial Twitter Guide to Reds and Brewers fans

I believe few will disagree that the Twitter as a social media technology  greatly enhances the baseball watching experience in a way unlike anything we have had before, especially for us transplanted fans.   We can now share with like-minded fans in a way that we used to at school, work and in the neighborhood.

That brings me to one of my favorite people, an absolute cornerstone in my baseball loving foundation: Roy Ferguson.  I will never be able to call him by his first name.  Mr. Ferguson was my next door neighbor when I lived in in St. Louis, and he was a Cubs fan.   And not just a little bit.  I mean BIG TIME.   Every time we would meet, he would start the conversation with “Cards stink” to which I would respond with the obligatory “Cubs stink”.   That usually led to a discussion about baseball or football, generally while he and my dad were playing grillmaster, cooking dinner for our respective families.  Pork steaks would be the popular choice.

There was never any name calling, and it never got more heated than “Cards or Cubs stink”.  Thannks to Mr. Ferguson, I learned a lot about Fergie Jenkins (the trade that brought him to Chicago), Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, Don Kessinger, Glenn Beckert, and his favorite: Ron Santo.  More than that, he taught me how to be a rabid fan of a player, yet be respectful of others that didn’t share that perspective.   He also taught me how to talk to others about a player, in the hopes that they might see things they had overlooked.

In 1968, Mr. Ferguson was my twitter and two yards separated by a rickety wood fence was our social media network.

So that brings us to 2012 and the current social media experience.   It is one thing to share a game with a bunch of Cardinals fans, that is incredible.  It takes on an entirely new dimension when you can also interact intelligently with fans of the opposing teams.   It is like Twitter with a shot of esperesso.   OK, maybe a bucket full of espresso.   To get the most out of the experience, maybe we can all learn something from Mr. Ferguson.

1. Decide on and implement a social contract

If you are satisfied with just telling “Cards suck” and “Reds suck” with the risk that it will eventually become “you suck”, awesome.  Carry on and I hope you enjoy the exchanges.  It should be very easy to find a plethora of tweeps to interact with.   After all, Twitter requires just a computer and an internet connection.  Neither grammar nor maturity is required, but generally appreciated.  If you do go down this path, don’t get mad when it does dissolve into personal name calling, because it will.   Remember, you chose this type of conversation.  Opt out is always an alternative.

If you want something more, you might consider how you tweet about the opposition.   That doesn’t mean you can’t ride the emotional roller coaster, I certainly do.   But if you want something more than “* suck”, perhaps you should start by offering more first.

If you do, a universe of rewards is waiting for you.   Just before a series, you can get a very good read on who is hot, and who isn’t.  You can tell what players to watch because your twitter buddies are already talking about them.

2. Brandon Phillips is not a douchebag

One of the more controversial topics, I’m sure.  Let’s get something things straight, and right now.   Brandon Phillips is, and has been for a couple of years, one of the most exciting players in the National League.  Cardinals fans would put him on a pedestal if he played in St. Louis, as would fans of every other team.   What’s not to like.

• He plays the game hard
• He plays the game well, both offensively and defensively
• He does not run away and hide when challenged
• He stands up for his team
• He takes it like a professional when things don’t go well
• And he acts like a professional when they do
• He interacts with fans on the very social media network that we are talking about

If we want Reds fans to respect Yadier Molina, why not start by showing Brandon Phillips some respect first.  Admit it, the Lunchables tweet was truly funny, and it wasn’t aimed at any one person.

On the Brewers side of the world, a similar treatment towards Ryan Braun might go a long way in cultivating some good twitter buddies.  What you will find out is that they actually laugh at most of the stuff we do.   In fact, if you take the time to listen, they find a lot more stuff to yack about.   Recent PED issues aside, he is one of their favorites, and that’s good enough for me.

That doesn’t mean you must avoid trash talking.   That’s also part of baseball.  Just that if you are going to participate in it, be as gracious as a receiver as you are a sender.

3. Carpenter, Cueto and Morgan

OK, I think everybody gets this one.   Reds fans are never going to like Chris Carpenter.  I don’t thing Cardinals fans will ever like Johnny Cueto.   And rain is still wet.  One thing we can all agree about is that we enjoy reminiscing about Scott Rolen a lot more than watching him play today.

As for Morgan, I think if the truth were to come out, Brewers fans dislike him more than Cardinals fans.  They have to watch him play a lot more, and when he does stupid things, it reflects poorly on a franchise they adore.   Just as much as we do ours.

It might also be helpful to remember that the Cardinals closet of unliked players isn’t exactly bare.  Garry Templeton did things when he was first promoted to the major leagues that would make Brandon Phillips and Nyjer Morgan look like saints in comparison.   Perhaps more in the Brandon Phillips case, Joaquin Andujar was never one to miss an opportunity to shove something in the face of an opponent.   And like Phillips, if it got ugly (let’s say like in Game Seven of the 1982 World Series), he had had the integrity to face the consequences, even if it meant losing a tooth or not seeing clearly out of one eye for a while.

4. A Difference of Opinions is not Whining

Ahhh, the 2012 All Star Game selection process.  We have learned that Dusty Baker does not like that a couple of his players were not invited to play in midsummer classic.   And ?

I’m upset that Kyle Lohse did not get an invitation.   He deserved it, probably not as much as most who were invited, but more than, say Lance Lynn.   This is probably his best chance, but it did not happen.   That I lament this oversight does not make me a whiner.   I haven’t seen much on this topic from the Reds fans I follow, nor has there been a lot of angst regarding Zack Greinke from Milwaukee.  Some, to be sure, but it was well tempered and understandable.

Let’s leave the fire fanning and argument baiting for those in the media, for they do it well.   It is their job.   Some choose to go the way of the snark, some rise above it and do some research and tell it as it is, without inflammatory comments, inciting trolls.  You do know the internet has trolls, right ?   You aren’t one, are you ?   Good.

Fans of every team have a laundry list of players they thing should have been invited to an All Star Game.  Every year.  Instead of calling them whiners, why not ask why they think that player should go, and you might get a new perspective on that player.  Or not.

5. How to Find good Brewers and Reds Tweeps ?

More times than not, they will find you.  But if you are looking, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance is a great place to start.   The membership list is organized by team affiliation, making this incredibly easy.

For Brewers fans, start out with The Brewers Bar and Disciples of Uecker (formerly Bernie’s Crew).  Both have Twitter accounts and the Brewers Bar also has a Facebook page.  Start by following @TheBrewersBar, @JP_Breen and @JaymesL.   From there, start following people they are interacting with.

As for the Reds, it will take a bit more effort to find like minded fans.  Start with a couple of good ones, @boilermike1208, @diamondhoggers and @baseballcincy.  The latter two have associated blogs, but I don’t believe they are associated with the BBA.  A couple of other good follows are  @MisterRedLegs (@MtsRedLegs needs to get on Twitter), @WiseDonald and @KaseyBeckham.   As with the Brewers, start following other tweeps that they interact with.

Over the next couple of weeks, I will put together a link exchange (a project I’ve been wanting to do for quite some time).   If you come across any Brewers, Pirates or Reds fans that you think should be on this list, send me a private DM on Twitter (@CardinalTales) or place it in a comment to this posting.

One more great place to find bloggers and tweeps is Daniel Shoptaw’s Playing Pepper series.   He asks and answers questions from others blogging about various teams.   This year he did Reds Country and Bernie”s Crew.  Generally, if somebody is willing to put in the effort to post articles to a blog, they are worth following and interacting on Twitter.

A suggestion to help grow your personal community – participate in the Twitter Follow Friday (hashtag #ff).  List out your favorites for each team, letting us know who you enjoy following.  Finally, pay attention to others #ff postings as they are a very good way of expanding your community.

Last August and September were a lot of fun, and thanks to @JaymesL and some of the other Brewers fans for all of the great conversions.  I’m hoping we can repeat that with the Reds this year.

June 30, 2012 – A Tale of Two Grounders

Over the last couple of years, we have spent a lot of time digging through Cardinals history, looking at specific games or former players.  There has always been a reason, a subtext that connects some piece of the past to what is happening with the team right now.  A few of them have a personal connection, while others, probably most of them,, are meant to help us keep from getting discouraged in the hopes that some piece of magical history could repeat itself.  Again.   And it often does.

This is not one of those stories.

Bricktown Ballpark (courtesy of baseballpilgrimages.com)

Last night, far far away from the spotlight of the national media, a Minor League game was played between the Memphis Redbirds and the Oklahoma City RedHawks.  There were no playoff implications and nobody set any personal or team record, but if you were fortunate enough to have seen it or heard a radio broadcast, you were treated to a game that you not likely forget.  For the real baseball fan, who looks beyond the box scores and home run highlights, you found one of those perfect baseball moments – the kind that make us baseball fans for life.   If you missed it, please read on as I attempt to give it the justice it deserves.

The setup

The Cardinals AAA Affiliate in Memphis were traveling to Oklahoma City to play a four game series with the RedHawks, the AAA Affiliate of the Houston Astros.   The Redbirds entered the game with a 30-52 record – a most disappointing season for first year Memphis manager, Ron “Pop” Warner.

What had been a perennial playoff contender was now a team in complete rebuilding mode.  Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso and Allen Craig are now regulars with the Cardinals in St. Louis.  Tyler Greene has run out of options, so his time with the Memphis Redbirds hjamie moyer statsas come to an end.   None of those players would have been in Warner’s plans for 2012, but  Tony Cruz, Matt Carpenter and Shane Robinson likely were.   Thanks to some key injuries, and good showings in spring training, all three are with the big club, and at least Cruz and Carpenter are likely to stay.  Since Robinson is one of the new right handed bats on the St. Louis bench, he may also have seen his last days in Memphis.  Also gone, via trades or free agency, are Adam Ottavino, Andrew Brown, Alex Castellanos, PJ Walters, Daryl Jones, Pete Parise, James Rapaport, Donovan Solano and Nick Stavinoha.

Injuries to the big club have also cost Warner pitchers Maikel Cleto, Victor Marte, Eduardo Sanchez, Fernando Salas and most recently  Joe Kelly as well as some time with outfielder Adron Chambers and power hitting first baseman, Matt Adams.  These moves bt the big club have prompted the early callups of Sam Freeman, John Gast, Scott Gorgen plus the acquisition of John Gaub and Clay Zavada.

These are not excuses for their current record, but just observations of what happens to a minor league system when bad things happen to the parent ballclub.

Although the season has been largely disappointing for Warner and the Memphis fans, the last homestand did end on a positive note, winning the series against Albuquerque.   Although it was just the third season win for the Redbirds (the other two were a home and away set with the Iowa Cubs), it did give them a little momentum heading into this roadtrip.

Don’t Answer the Phone

Until the phone rang again.   After a pair of bullpen meltdowns against the Pirates in St. Louis, the Cardinals recalled right hander Maikel Cleto and purchased the contract of lefty Barret Browning.  Cleto has been up with the Cardinals several times, but Browning, a former prospect in the Los Angeles Angels farm system, has never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues.   The other half of the transaction were the optioning of Sam Freeman and Eduardo Sanchez, both of whom had become increasingly inconsistent.

The timing of the move couldn’t have worked out better for the Cardinals.   Since the team was leaving Memphis for Oklahoma City anyway, Browning and Cleto just took I-55 all the way to St. Louis while the rest of the team rode the bus, probably taking US63 to US412 to I44.  Both Cleto and Browning made it to St. Louis and appeared in the afternoon loss to the Pirates.  Browning was spectacular in his major league debut, retiring all six men he faced.  Cleto was just nasty in his inning of work.

Curiously, neither Sanchez nor Freeman made it to Oklahoma City in time for the game, so Warner’s lineup card was two players down before the first pitch was thrown.

No Hitting Allowed

The game got underway on time, at 7pm.  On the mound for the Cardinals was John Gast, one of the mid-season promotions in response to all of the pitching woes in St. Louis.  In his first few starts, he was impressive.  He went right after batters and was largely effective.   In the last few, he has come back to Earth and is looking like a AA pitcher with a huge amount of potential thrust into a most difficult situation.  But Gast is improving, which should give Cardinals fans one more reason to be optimistic about the team’s future.

On the mound for the RedHawks was Brian Bass, a 30 year old right hander that was originally drafted by Kansas City.  An Adam Ottavino type of pitcher, Bass was not given a contract after the 2006 season and has spent time with Minnesota, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and now finds himself in the Houston farm system.  Bass has spent parts of three seasons in the major league, pitching mostly in the bullpen.

Through the first four innings, it appeared as if Oklahoma City was going to run away with this game.  Redbirds starter, John Gast, left the bases loaded in the first and fourth innings, where the RedHawks scored two runs each time.  He also allowed a solo home run in the second inning.  Heading into the fifth inning, he was approaching 90 pitches and appeared to be headed for an early shower.

On the other side of the diamond, Bass was cruising.  He did not look like a pitcher with a 1-2 record and an ERA that would make you cringe.  Through his first four innings, Bass had allowed just one base runner, a lead off walk to Adron Chambers in the fourth.

What the box scores will not tell you is that this no-hitter in the making was a very fragile one, at best.  Memphis hitters were making good contact on Bass and either hit the ball right at a RedHawks defender, or one of the OKC players made a good play to keep Memphis hitless.   Such was the case during John Gast’s first at-bat, and this is significant.   He hit a bouncing ball deep in the hole at short, and Angel Sanchez made a great throw to beat him by a step.   Make a note here – Gast gets down the first base line very quickly for a pitcher.   That becomes important in a few moments.

That Which Was Made

The fourth inning was something of a total disaster for Memphis.   After successfully bunting Adron Chambers into scoring position , one of the many things Ryan Jackson did to make this win possible, Matt Adams and Steven Hill both struck out.

Then, in the bottom of the inning, a pair of defensive miscues by Matt Adams led to another pair of RedHawks runs.

With runners at first and second and nobody out, Brian Bass lays down a perfect sacrifice bunt.  Matt Adams fields it, and instead of taking a step away from the baseline, decides to throw a lollipop over the runner.  His toss is too high and pulls Pete Kozma off the base and Bass is safe.  Adams had plenty of time to take a couple of steps and make a good throw.   The play is ruled a sacrifice and a throwing error on Adams.   The bases are now loaded with nobody out.

After Gast strikes out Brandon Barnes for the first out, Jimmy Paredes hits a bullet to right field.  Fortunately, the ball was hit so sharply that the RedHawks had to hold the runner at third, plating just the one run.

With the bases still loaded, the next RedHawks batter nearly clears them then Fernando Martinez hits a rope down the left field line.  It bounces just foul, and the Oklahoma City fans all let out a giant sigh, as if they knew what was about to happen.

A couple of pitches later, Martinez hits the ball hard at Matt Adams.   He is unable to make the play, and the ball bounces to Pete Kozma.   With Adams moving to his right, he is unable to turn around and get back to first base.   Gast did not help his cause as he did not cover first either, so Kozma ends up holding the baseball while the RedHawks score another run.   It is ruled an infield single, but could just as easily have been Adams second error of the inning.

As badly as this game is going at the moment, the next two plays give you a glimpse of what John Gast is capable of, and why he will make a fine addition to the rotation in a couple of years.

Knowing he is on a very short leash right now, Gast gets the next batter to pop up, in foul territory to Bryan Anderson.  This was hardly a routine catch as the ball had a lot of spin and was assisted by a breeze.  Another detail that does not come across in the box score.   The most important thing about that play – it keeps the all important sixth run at third base.

There are now two outs, and that takes us to the first of our two turning points in this game.

On a 1-2 pitch, the speedy Angel Sanchez hits a ball through the right side of the infield.  It looked like a 2 run single all the way, but somehow, Pete Kozma was able to dive far to his left and make the play.   From his knees, he fires a bullet to Matt Adams to get Sanchez by a step.   This is one of the prettiest plays I’ve ever seen Komza make, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.

And that Which Was Not

The Memphis fifth inning started off on a positive when Mark Hamilton hits a blast to to deepest part of Bricktown, just missing a home run by a foot or so.  The ball bounces off the wall and Hamilton cruises into second base.   That was the first Memphis hit on the night.  Hamilton moves up to third base on a ground out by Zack Cox.

Pete Kozma follows that with a double ripped, down the left field line.  Hamilton scores the first Redbirds run and the score is now 5-1 in favor of the RedHawks.  Bryan Anderson grounds out for the second out of the inning and Kozma takes third on the play.

That brings John Gast to the plate, and the second of our two pivotal plays, which actually has two parts.   The first was the decision to let Gast bat for himself in this situation.   He had struggled for most of the night, and was over 80 pitches.   He would last another inning, maybe two at the most.   Perhaps if there was another runner in scoring position, Warner might have opted for a pinch hitter here, but he didn’t.  And we are so glad he made that choice.

Gast hits a routine grounder to first base, but Mike Hesseman fails to make the play.   Kozma scores the second run for the Redbirds and Gast is safe at first on Hesseman’s error.

And then the floodgates opened, and nothing went in the RedHawks favor.

Adron Chambers follows that with a single.  Ryan Jackson doubles, scoring both runners.

Stop the presses  

Pop Warner makes a most unexpected substitution, sending Cedric Hunter in to pinch hit for Matt Adams.   With all of the Cardinals recent woes, this will certainly lead to a maelstrom of speculation of whether Adams had been called up or traded.   It was more likely that Adams had been removed as a precaution as the ground ball he booted was hit rather sharply.   At the end of the game, there was still no official word on why this move was made.

And Thus the Blowout Begins

Hunter hits a seeing-eye grounder that scored Jackson with the tying run.    That would end the evening for Brian Bass.   Of the five runs he allowed so far, just one was earned.   He is also responsible for Hunter on first base, and that would eventually cost him the loss.

Enerio Del Rosario is now into the game for Oklahoma City and he fares no better than Bass.  Steven Hill would draw a walk on a close call.  Mark Hamilton would follow that with a three run homer – in nearly the exact same spot as his double to start the inning – just a couple of feet deeper.  Zack Cox follows that with a double and Del Rosario walks Pete Kozma and Bryan Anderson.   John Gast, who should have made the last out in his previous at-bat, finally does so in his second.   Mermphis sends fourteen men to the plate, nine after what should have been the last out.   They also put 8 runs on the scoreboard and took an 8-5 lead.  One which they would not give back for the remainder of this game.

A One and a Two and a Three

It was something of a courageous decision to let Gast hit for himself in the top of the fifth, allowing him to take the mound after such a long inning on the bench proved to be just as pivotal as his two at-bats in the top of the inning.  It probably doesn’t warrant repeating, but the most important thing for a pitcher to do is throw a quick scoreless inning immediately after his team gives him the lead.

That’s exactly what Gast did.   As if to kick the wounded RedHawks, Gast didn’t even work up a sweat as he worked a swift fifth inning.

His team would reward him with another pair of runs in the sixth.   Gast’s night would come to an end in the bottom of the six as Pop Warner turns the game over to his bullpen, sans one Sam Freeman and Eduardo Sanchez.  Nick Greenwood, John Gaub and Chuckie Fick would close out this neat win for Gast, with the only blemish a solo home run by Mike Hesseman, his 24th on the season.

As quickly as the bottom of the innings were flying by, the tops were quite the other thing.  Memphis would score runs in every remaining inning: three in the sixth, one in the seventh, two in the eighth and finally six in the ninth.   After being no-hit through four innings, Memphis collected 21 hits in the final five.

Some of the individual performances were amazing.

• Adron Chambers: 5-6 with a double, 4 runs scored, 1 RBI
• Ryan Jackson: 2-5 with 2 doubles, 4 RBIs
• Cedric Hunter: 3-5 with 3 RBIs and 2 runs scored
• Mark Hamilton: 3-4 with a double and home run.  3 runs scored and 3 RBIs
• Zack Cox: 3-6 with 2 doubles, a run scored and 2 RBIs
• Pete Kozma: 1-3 with a double, 2 RBIs, 2 runs scored and a game saving defensive play

It should also be noted that, for all of the offensive mayhem in the last five innings, Memphis hit just one home run.   Most of the damage came by way of the double.   That’s good sustainable baseball.

It was an amazing game, not for the final score, but for those two magic moments in the fifth inning – one play that was made to prevent a blowout and one that wasn’t that led to one.  The game within the game, something that baseball fans cherish.   There is a final moral to this story though, and it has been something of a constant theme on this blog.   When the major league team is not playing, either with a day off or an early or west coast schedule, take the time to check out a minor league game.  Every once in a while, you will be rewarded with a gem like this one.   All of the audio is streamed for free, and the video from nearly every AAA game, and now, quite a few AA games is available for a small subscription fee.  Being able to watch the game last night was worth that price, and more.

Matt Adams and the upcoming trade deadline

It was nearly two years ago to the day that I wrote Would you trade your top draft choice   as speculation of a Shelby Miller for Roy Oswalt deal spread across blogs and twitter timelines faster than the wildfire currently burning in Colorado.  At that time, the Cardinals were in playoff purgatory, neither clearly heading towards postseason nor falling out of contention.   The outcome of the that season would be largely determined by a brutal 2-8 road trip in August, where the Cardinals played some of the most uninspired baseball in decades.  At the trade deadline, however, I would have gladly supported that deal.  Roy Oswalt would be traded to the Philadelphia Phillies and post a 7-1 record with an ERA under two.  He struggled last year through some injury issues, but is back pitching with another division leader, and helping them work their way towards another division title.  Shelby Miller has yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues.

We are two years removed from that awful summer slide, yet the Cardinals find themselves in nearly the same situation today.  The difference is that in between, the team won a World Series championship, and the taste of that amazing 2011 postseason lingers in the back of Cardinals fans throats as we long for more.  And now.

With nearly half of the Cardinals starting rotation on the disabled list without anything that even resembles a timetable for returning, there is reason to be concerned as the temperatures start rising (both physically and metaphorically). To compound things, the bullpen, which had been stellar in the last two months last year, seems to have becoming quite porous, unable to hold leads or keep the games close in the final innings.  It is not the malady of any one pitcher, but something of a communal funk.  That suggests some retooling might be in their future before even considering fixing the rotation.

Don’t be surprised when you start hearing the name “Matt Adams” in rumors and trade speculations.  As with Shelby Miller two years ago, a bit of perspective might help you come to terms with this, should it actually happen.

And it might, and that would be OK. For the right player or players.

July 24, 2009 – Shane Peterson, Clayton Mortenson and Brett Wallace for Matt Holliday

At the time, this trade was received with mixed emotions.  On one hand, Matt Holliday was THE big name player about to enter the free agency market.   Cardinals fans were ecstatic about seeing the gargantuan left fielder hitting behind the best player in baseball, Albert Pujols.  He got off to a quick start which helped turn that excitement into a genuine fevered frenzy.

On the other hand, Brett Wallace was a name that we had heard over and over since being drafted in the first round back in 2008.  He was only 22 years old, a rising star and the top prospect in the Cardinals farm system.   A minor league system that was not highly regarded by other teams, thanks to a glut of players like Nick Stavinoha, Brett Wallace, Zack Cox, Matt Hamilton and a seemingly endless supply of short singles hitting outfielders like Shane Robinson, Adron Chambers, Jim Rapaport, Aaron Luna, Tyler Henley, Daryl Jones.   It is certainly not a fair evaluation of the Cardinals system as a whole, since each affiliate had developed a team style of baseball that was producing league championships at nearly each level.  That same system also produced Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter and Jon Jay – we have just learned how valuable each of those players are.   But there are no Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers or Mike Giancarlo Stantons down there either.

The 2009 season played itself out and thanks to the addition of Matt Holliday, the Cardinals found themselves in postseason, abruptly ending with a most disappointing sweep by the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The turning point in the series might have been a defensive miscue by Holliday in Game Two, which led to a Dodgers rally.  In the span of less than five minutes, a most promising win turned into a horrific loss, and all momentum going into Game Three was lost.

Things turned somewhat negative in Cardinals Nation after the series, not because of the ball that Holliday lost in the lights, but thanks to the prominent news story for the next three months – whether or not Matt Holliday would resign with St. Louis.  Throw in the dark spectre of the upcoming Pujols contract extension talks and you have enough negative energy to defeat Luke Skywalker and the Rebel Force from Star Wars.  All of a sudden, there was concern that the Cardinals had just emptied out their farm system for a two month rental, with nothing to show for it.

But Holliday did sign, and Brett Wallace was soon traded to Houston, where he has failed to stick in the major leagues.  Shane Peterson seems to have plateaued at the AA level, back to Midland in the Texas League after finishing 2011 in Sacremento (AAA).    Clayton Mortenson has fared a bit better, now pitching long relief in mostly a mop-up role with the Boston Red Sox.

Any way you look at this deal, it has been a good one for the Cardinals.  Even if the Cardinals did bid against themselves following the 2009 season, Holliday has been everything we expected him to be – both good (at the plate) and not so good (in the field).  The real measure has been in the post-Pujols era where Holliday has very quietly shaken off a rough start and is significantly outperforming his former teammate.   He currently sits at .300 / .383 / .498 with 18 doubles, 12 home runs and 47 RBIs, including a June of .345 / . 430 / .536 with 10 of those 18 doubles.  In other words, the old Holliday is back – if the old Holliday really left.   Don’t you know that Angels fans would love to see anything close to that out of their new $250M man.   Throw in that the Cardinals have Holliday locked up during his prime years, as opposed to the last half of the Pujols contract, and this deal looks even better.

Remember it all started with trading away the one player that fans knew in the minor league system: Brett Wallace.  The can’t miss prospect, as if there such a thing.

Our buddy, Dennis, from over at Pitchers Hit Eighth, said it perfectly on Twitter

Getting too possessive of a prospect has been many a team's undoing.

Throw in this gem from Branch Rickey

Trade a player a year too early instead of a year too late.

Both of these were certainly true about the Wallace/Holliday trade.  Let’s look at some others.

Dmitri Young – 4th overall pick in 1991

After allowing Jack Clark to slip away in free agency (ok, he was actually pushed, but that’s another story), the Cardinals started looking for another big (and cheap) bat to put at first base.  Dmitri Young fit the bill.  At the time.   He peaked as high as #12 on the Baseball America’s prospect list, heading into the 1993 season as a 19 year old.  Young was a five tool player: hitting, hitting, hitting, hitting and hitting.   He would eventually make it to the big leagues with the Cardinals, essentially as a September callup in 1996.   He was actually activated at the end of August to be post-season eligible and did play in the NLCS.  Young was traded to Cincinnati following the 1997 season where he would have several good years with the Reds.   The “can’t miss prospect” pretty much did.   A good player with a career in which he should take pride.   A franchise first baseman – nope.

Joe Hague – 1966.

Joe Hague is a fascinating story, especially as it eerily parallels that of Matt Adams.  Hague was drafted by the Cardinals in 1966.  The big lefty (for the era) quickly became the Cardinals top first base prospect, hitting for power and average as well as being a plus defender at the position.  After trading away Orlando Cepeda following the loss to the Tigers in the 1968 World Series (The exception to Branch Rickey’s rule as it turned out) , the Cardinals auditioned several players at first base.   Joe Torre, Bill White and young Joe Hague took turns with Torre getting the most playing time.  In 1970, Richie Allen took over at first base, which meant that Hague would move to the outfield – not his best position.   Hague would still show off some power at the plate, but the hitting consistency we had seen in the minors escaped him at the major league level.  Like Dmitri Young, Hague went on to a fine career, but failed to become the next Bill White or Orlando Cepeda.

There are other examples – Jim Lindeman, who had one monster spring training, which cost the Cardinals many productive years from Andy van Slyke.   Goerge Kernek was a huge first baseman in the 1960s, rushed to the major leagues to take over for Bill White.  Perhaps he was moved up too quickly as he lasted for just 30 games over two seasons.  That lead to the early 1966 trade for Orlando Cepeda, and we know how well that one worked out for the Cardinals.  In fact, since 1985, only John Mabry, Dmitri Young, Albert Pujols, Daric Barton, Brett Wallace and Chris Duncan have seen any real major league playing time at first base.  Most of them were drafted at other positions and became first baseman out of necessity.  Only Chris Duncan was drafted as a first baseman, and he played mostly in left field.

The moral of this story is that first baseman are not drafted nor cultivated.  They are generally the inevitable placement for a bat that you want to get into the lineup that comes with a glove that you don’t.   There is a second, and perhaps more important subtext.  Discovering Albert Pujols was a complete fluke.  They happen.  Repeated attempts to draft another one have led to a rather long line of disappointing players who failed to live up to their considerable hype.  Meanwhile, other teams have found Brett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer, Billy Hamilton and the aforementioned Harper, Trout and Stanton.

What of Matt Adams ?

We’ve certainly heard his name, and thanks to a most unfortunate injury to Lance Berkman, many more have been able to see what the fuss is all about.  Adams is a big strong kid and can hit the ball with authority.   Unlike a lot of his his post-PED peers in the Cardinals farm system, Adams has a pretty compact swing and gets his bat through the strike zone quickly and without a lot of extra commotion.   That leads to some pretty serious power, but it also suggests that he might be able to hit for average as well.  His minor league career numbers compare favorably to those of Prince Fielder (another one dimensional player at first base).  Our buddy Dennis, quoted earlier, suggests something more like Larry Walker, and that might be more fair on the hitting side of things – but Walker had a part of his game that Adams doesn’t – the ability to play in the outfield.

Why would the Cardinals consider trading away such a valuable prospect ?

Because he is blocked more ways than a weekend marathon of Hollywood Squares.  For Adams, there is only one position that he can play, first base.   Do you know who else can play first base ?   Lance Berkman (currently injured), Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Tony Cruz, Steven Hill.  If we get crazy with this, throw in Daniel Descalso.  While Carpenter, Molina and Cruz (and Descalso) are more of a utility option and not for an every day lineup, Lance Berkman and Allen Craig are certainly every day first basemen.  While Berkman is nearing the end of his career, Craig is just starting his – and a most impressive start it has been.  Craig has demonstrated an ability to produce consistently at the major league level, especially in big games.  Ironically, Craig was drafted as a shortstop.  No, seriously.  Look it up if you don’t believe me.

To put it bluntly, the Cardinals need Allen Craig’s bat in the lineup and there is really no better place for him to play than first base.

Let’s throw in a couple of additional wrinkles.  Matt Holliday is under contract through 2016 (club option for 2017).  In two or maybe three years, if the National League does not adopt the Designated Hitter rule, Holliday could very well find himself playing first base, ala Orlando Cepeda or Jack Clark.  Although less likely, if injuries continue being an issue, David Freese could also be destined for the less hot corner just to keep that potent bat in the lineup.

Alton Brown, of the television series Good Eats, always said that there is only room in the kitchen for one unitasker – the fire extinguisher.  The same can also be said of the modern baseball team.  Without the DH, you can really only afford one uni-tasker (one dimensional player).

But wait, what about Zack Cox ?  That’s where Rickey’s Law comes into play.  Cox’s production has fallen each of the last three seasons.  He may well be Brett Wallace 2.0, and if that is the case, his stock was much higher last year when he carried the prospect label, thanks in large part to Oscar Taveras, Kolten Wong, Ryan Jackson, Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, John Gast and Shelby Miller.  Like Adams, Cox appears to be largely blocked by players already contributing.  Unlike the Adams case, those players are short on service time (Freese) and we expect to see them with the big club for several more years.  Perhaps helping Cox stay in the Cardinals system is a lack of third base depth, in the event that David Freese’s injury woes continue.

Zack Cox could be a part of a Rafael Furcal like trade, perhaps for a right handed reliever that has some short term upside.  But don’t expect a Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace or even a Chris Perez type of deal.

Uncle Bud’s Monkey Wrench

Before 2012, this would be a rather simple scenario.  A new playoff spot introduced in each league makes this much more difficult for the buyers at the trade deadline.  It will turn a couple of teams from fence sitters to buyers, many more sellers to fence straddlers, waiting to see what happens in early August – hoping that their deals will then clear waivers.   The pool of available trading partners is much smaller now than it was a year ago, and the smart teams are not going to wait until the last week to make their move.   Throw in Matt Adams (and Zack Cox) limited positions, and the trade partner almost has to be from the American League.    Right now, that means Oakland, Seattle, Kansas City, Minnesota, Toronto and maybe Detroit.    In the National League, Philadelphia remains an interesting possibility – out of contention with a big free agent-to-be (Cole Hamels).

There just aren’t enough sellers, and while it was very early in the morning and I don’t know that I made it to every class, my college Economics professor said that in this situation, the seller has the leverage and it will take more effort from the buyer to make a deal.  That means the Cardinals will have to put more into a deal than in years passed.  Let’s be honest – the Cardinals don’t have all that many players that other teams are interested in.  I know that’s hard to accept, so let’s look at this another way.

The Untouchables

Which Cardinals are untouchable (for whatever reason).

That is a pretty short list.  Joe Kelly, John Gast, Trevor Rosenthal, Kolten Wong and maybe Ryan Jackson.   It’s not because they are the future faces of the franchase, but that they are far more valuable to the Cardinals than any player they would likely receive in a trade.  One other player on this list might be Oscar Taveras.   While there are no Mike Trouts in the Cardinals farm system right now, Taveras might be the closest to that type of multi-tool player.

Zack Cox, Bryan Anderson and Mark Hamilton along with pitchers Brian Broderick and Brandon Dickson have become the players that Branch Rickey warned us about – more valuable last year than right now.  Cox and Broderick both have time to turn that around, but neither are the type of player that other teams covet.  They could be parts of a deal, as Shane Peterson and Clayton Mortenson were in 2009, but not the principles.

Right now, the Cardinals need a couple of upgrades and they don’t have a wealth of players to offer in a seller leveraged marketplace.  The two that they do have are Shelby Miller and Matt Adams.   Of those two, Adams is the one the Cardinals can most easily do without in the future.   It doesn’t lessen any of the things we’ve said in praise over the last two years, and it might be hard to watch him become a star with another club, but he is the only quality part that the team can afford to trade away.

Unless.

And this is the most likely scenario……. and many Cardinals fans are not going to like this……. the front office does nothing and goes into the last two months with the team they have right.  With a rookie manager and a disabled list that looks like an All Star lineup card, maybe this is the time to take a wait and see attitude at the deadline.   Just maybe they can steal an NL Central title or one of the two Wild Cards and back into something special.   Or maybe they can make a small deal here or there for another Octavio Dotel instead of the blockbuster like last year that fixed nearly all of the problems at once.

There is one more possibility, and it will not be very popular.  It might not be Matt Adams that is dealt, but our other left handed hitting first baseman, Lance Berkman.  The Cardinals veteran first baseman is a good clubhouse presence and clutch performer when healthy.  Perhaps a team that needs a summer rental of a first baseman or designated hitter that happens to have an excess of pitching might emerge as a trade partner or part of a creative three team deal, like the one John Mozeliak crafted last year.

There is only one thing that we can count on.   The next series is against a divisional rival who is thinking the exact same thing as ours.  Instead of worrying about July 31, our attention needs to be focused on the next three games and cheering our team onto another important series win.